Blue Jays Offseason Moves

In this dream world, I’m the new Toronto Blue Jays GM, and ROGERS just told me I have $45million with which to buy a couple new free agents this off season (assuming I’m multiplying my current payroll by 1.5, or making the significant upgrade I’ve read SO much about).

The Bats

We’re set at 1B with Edwin Encarnacion, and Adam Lind is a passable backup; I can’t wait for his salary to go away, though.

RF is Jose Bautista; I have Moises Sierra in case he gets hurt. I pray that doesn’t happen again.

3B is locked down by Brett Lawrie, who should continue to improve at the plate.

SS is taken care of by the good glove, decent base running, almost-no bat Yunel Escobar. Ideally his bat bounces back a little.

C will see J.P. Arencibia and a hopefully-healthy Travis D’Arnaud. D’Arnaud could be a stud with the bat and above-average behind the plate. Ideally, he’ll take over as the full-time catcher by season’s end.

2B is empty, with Kelly Johnson’s contract up. The only way I bring him back is if it’s for roughly $5million on a 1-year term. That will probably work out, actually, since he isn’t worth more and he just had a tough season. Johnson is probably on the downside of his career, but I’ll take him over any of the other 2B options. Unless I can trade for someone, but that doesn’t seem like a promising endeavour, because guys like Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler aren’t exactly cheap and available.

LF is basically empty, although I could bring back Rajai Davis, but I’d only do that under the same conditions as Kelly Johnson. If Rajai wants a long-term contract, he can search elsewhere. Otherwise, it’s 1 years and $5million for him. See below on how I hope to make him our fourth OF in a platoon with Colby Rasmus.

CF is being played by Colby Rasmus, and he’s cheap, but I’d rather try to find a long-term replacement. I have absolutely nothing positive to say about him. His bat was hot for exactly one month last season (June), and in the others it was TERRIBLE. His net “production” was something like 17% worse than the league-average hitter. He was “worth” about $6.5million if he was a regular free agent. Since we have another year of arbitration eligibility for him, I’ll go that route. He’ll probably get $4-5million in arbitration. Fine. If he goes nuts in his final season before free agency, so be it. Despite what people think, players actually DO NOT show, as a whole, an ability to “turn it on” in contract years in baseball. I’m not going to get into it, but it is horseshit. Anyway, I won’t lock up 26 year olds with .243/.313/.422 lines. That crappy line is actually misleading, because only once has he bested it, and that was with the Cardinals in 2010. With the Jays, his batting average is below .214, his on base percentage is below .272, and his slugging percentage is below .384. That is terrible.

Ok, enough Rasmus bashing. I’ll bash Adam Lind. He’s terrible. He’s a AAA player, maybe, but his $5million or more salary says he has to be on the big league club apparently. Plus he hits righties well enough to keep him around. He can platoon and pinch hit.

The youngsters don’t look ready yet, but Gose is close. Neither Hechavarria nor Sierra is ready for full-time 2013 work. Sierra is in his 25^th year on earth. He has been a good minor league hitter, but his talent level appears to be that of a 4^th outfielder. He is a bad fielder, a subpar base runner, and his success at the plate is BABIP-dependent. Basically, the ball needs to find holes. He has a little pop, maybe 20 HR material in a full season, but as a RF with limited range that won’t cut it. Also, we have a guy name Jose Bautista out there in right, and no way do you play a meh hitter in left. Rajai Davis is a better option in left. At least he fields passably and runs like the dickens. Anthony Gose gives me optimism because his defense and base running are already major league ready, both thanks to his hilarious, blazing speed. His eye at the plate is decent, but he swings and misses WAY too often. If he can improve his contact rate, he could be an above-average hitter. That’d make him a plus-plus-plus player. In September/October (97 plate appearances), Gose walked 11.3% of the time, struck out 23.7% of the time, had a .262/.347/.393 triple slash, stole 5 bases (only caught once), and was about 10% above average at the plate. I’d love to see him in CF full time, with Rasmus relegated to the bench, or off the team. But I think that’s almost a year away. Adeiny is too bad at the plate and still not there on defense. He needs another full season in the minors for sure. I’ll send him there to focus on developing his strengths and minimizing his weaknesses.

Melky Cabrera is a guy I will try to convince to take a post-steroid-scandal contract. I’ll put him in left for a year, hope he redeems himself on the field, and shows that the steroids weren’t as big a part of his breakout past 2 seasons as everyone else assumes. He’ll be 29 in August of 2013. So he should still be around his prime. I think he could provide a triple slash around .290/.340/.450, and he is a switch hitter who plays not horrific defense and can run the bases pretty well. Pre-steroid scandal he was going to get $100million, at least (my guess would’ve been 6 years and $126million). I’ll offer him 1-year and $10million. If he goes off and we make the playoffs, yay. If he goes off and we’re not in a playoff race then I’ll trade him to a contender for a prospect. If he sucks, oh well, it was only a 1-year deal and was worth the risk.

The Bullpen

I won’t touch the bullpen. I think it’ll be ok. Regardless, trading for relievers is dumb and signing them for big money is worse. Waste of coin unless you have so much of it that it doesn’t matter. I’d like to bring back Darren Oliver and Jason Frasor, but I think Oliver is gone and if Frasor wants more than $1million I’m walking away. Sergio Santos should be back and healthy.

The Starting Rotation

Brandon Morrow is a number 2/3 pitcher, not an ace, and ideally I’ll get another guy as good as him plus another guy obviously better than him. That way Ricky Romero can be the number 4 he looks like and Henderson Alvarez can be the number 5 HE looks like.

The other guys are injured or scrap heap material. J.A. Happ is number 5 guy at best. I’ll let the arbitrator make the decision for me. If he’s granted more than $3.5million, then I’ll let him walk. Otherwise, he can be a long reliever and spot starter. Carlos Villanueva? Let him walk. Once Drabek is healthy he’ll go to AAA and stay there unless he goes bananas for >5 starts. Drew Hutchison could wind up being good, but I’m not counting on him for 2013.

Here are the pitchers I’ll target:

1)       Zack Greinke

2)       Anibal Sanchez

3)       Edwin Jackson

Do I think Greinke is as good as his WAR indicates? No. But I do think he’s an all-star caliber, number 1 starter. He’s about to turn 29, has proven to be physically durable and, despite some mental issues when he was much younger, mentally strong, too. Getting a pitcher at age 29 that shows strong evidence of being able to throw 200+ innings with a ~3.50 ERA is highly valuable. He might want, and get, more but I’m offering him 7 years and $147million. For that price, I expect him to be all-star caliber for 3 years, very good for 2 more, good for another after that, and then mediocre in the final year of his contract, when he’s 35 years old. He has electric “stuff” but has had a hard time controlling the balls he lets in play and holding runners. At this point, he is what he is, but at least I know he isn’t getting by on deception and “craftiness” alone. He has a LOT of talent. I have faith that talent like that will age well.

I really like Anibal Sanchez. He’ll also be 29 starting next season, and has thrown 195+ IP in 3 straight seasons. He’s probably a true 3.75 ERA guy with strong strikeout stuff, decent control, and a propensity to give up dingers. As a righty in Toronto, that wouldn’t be so bad, but he’s more of a number 3 than he is a number 2. I’d value him the same as I value Brandon Morrow, only slightly healthier and slightly less total talent. Still, assuming reliable health and maintained production, there’s no reason he can’t be effective until he’s 34 years old. I’ll make him a 6-year, $78million contract offer. For that I should get 3 good-to-very-good seasons and 3 above-average-to-good seasons. He’s been good-to-very-good for 3 full seasons now, and he doesn’t seem to rely too much on defense or luck or stranding runners or keeping fly balls in the park. He throws 4 good pitches and should be a reliable out-getter for another 5 years.

Edwin Jackson should be a Jay already. Argh!!! Imagine if the old GM didn’t deal Jackson for Rasmus!? Imagine he didn’t deal Napoli for Frank Francisco?! Oh the frustration. What has EJ done since that trade? Won a world series with the St. Louis Cardinals and helped helm a staff that has led the Washington Nationals to the best record in baseball. EJ has shown that he can be relied upon for 200 innings. You can probably rely on him for about a 4.00 ERA in the AL East. That’s pretty darn good. In 2012 he was “worth” something like $13.5million, and too is born in late 1983. Assuming he would also provide 6 years of mostly healthy production, I’d expect 3 good years and 3 average years from him. Unfortunately, in modern baseball, that’s worth about $80 million. Maybe someone will pay him more, but I wouldn’t let it be me. I’d offer him 6 years and $72 million. If he doesn’t bite, that’s ok. If he does, I feel like I’ve signed a solid number 3 with the potential to be a number 2 guy in the rotation. Basically, I think I’ve got my second Brandon Morrow. Also, I’m only going after him if one of Greinke and Anibal say no.

A starting rotation of Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez/Edwin Jackson, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero, and Henderson Alvarez  probably won’t strike fear in the hearts of men, but I’d put it above the Yankees and Red Sox and Orioles rotations as they currently stand, with only Tampa Bay sporting a better top 5 in the AL East.

Speaking of Tampa Bay, I’d love to try to pick off one of their guys. They’ve talked about moving a starter for a bat, as they should. I’d be curious to know what they’d trade for Gose. They’re probably losing B.J. Upton to free agency. Anthony Gose would slot in nicely alongside Desmond Jennings for a young outfield of the future. If I could pry Matt Moore or Alex Cobb from them for him, I’d do it. I wouldn’t do it for Shields, though, because he’s 31 and as good as he’s been, he isn’t getting younger. Of course I’d do it for David Price, but I’d probably have to hold the phone away from my ear after making that offer. I wouldn’t do it for Jeremy Hellickson or Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann. They’re more like number 4/5 guys. Not bad, but not worth a top prospect.

To be clear, I’d prefer to sign Greinke and Sanchez than deal Gose for a SP, but it’s something I’d kick if need be.

Other starters that I would consider are:

1)       Ryan Dempster – too old and too expensive, but he’s still good.

2)       Hiroki Kuroda – probably going back to the Yankees.

3)       Shaun Marcum – good for 150-200IP and a 3.75 ERA. Solid #3 lefty.

4)       Kyle Lohse – He’ll be 33 next year, but he’s been great for 2 years now.

5)       Brandon McCarthy – Assuming his health, he's a guy who gives quality innings.

I’d take all of them if they were free, but I wouldn't want to pay top dollar for any of them. They either aren't good enough, are too old, or have injury concerns.

In a perfect world, I agree to $21 million to Zack Greinke, $10 million to Melky Cabrera, and $13 million to Anibal Sanchez. That’s $44 million in new spending, plus re-signing a couple of guys from last season (Rajai Davis, Kelly Johnson).

Here is my most common defensive alignment:

C1 – J.P. Arencibia

C2 – Travis D’Arnaud

C3 – Jeff Mathis

1B – Edwin Encarnacion

2B – Kelly Johnson

3B – Brett Lawrie

SS – Yunel Escobar

LF – Melky Cabrera

CF – Colby Rasmus

RF – Jose Bautista

UT OF – Rajai Davis

UT IF– Yan Gomes

Starting Pitchers

Zack Greinke

Anibal Sanchez

Brandon Morrow

Ricky Romero

Henderson Alvarez

Long Reliever

J.A. Happ

Middle Relievers

Aaron Loup

Brad Lincoln

Brandon Lyon

High Leverage Relievers

Steve Delabar

Sergio Santos

Casey Janssen

Normal Batting Order vs. RHP

1 – Brett Lawrie (3B)

2 – Melky Cabrera (LF)

3 – Jose Bautista (RF)

4 – Edwin Encarnacion (DH)  

5 – Colby Rasmus (CF)

6 – Adam Lind (1B)

7 – Kelly Johnson (2B)

8 – J.P. Arencibia/Travis D’Arnaud (C)

9 – Yunel Escobar (SS)

Normal Batting Order vs. LHP

1 – Brett Lawrie (3B)

2 – Melky Cabrera (LF)

3 – Jose Bautista (RF)

4 – Edwin Encarnacion (1B)

5 – J.P. Arencibia (DH)

6 – Rajai Davis (CF)

7 – Yunel Escobar (SS)

8 – Travis D’Arnaud (C)

9 – Kelly Johnson (2B) 

As I said, this is in a dream world. Not a perfect world, mind you, because in that world I'd be granted unlimited reign and I would be able to pilfer opposing teams in trades. 

Assuming reasonable health and production from the above-mentioned lineup, I firmly believe the Jays would be playoff contenders in 2013, and once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen.