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Toronto, Ontario, Canada
I'm an avid sports and movie fan, and I love statistical analysis of almost anything.

Saturday, November 3, 2012

Potential Offseason Upgrades for the Jays

If the Jays are actually going to increase payroll, and go after free agents, then which free agents should they covet? I'm going to go through it position by position.

POSITION: Catcher
INCUMBENT: J.P. Arencibia
POSSIBLY ALSO: Travis D’Arnaud
TOP REPLACEMENTS: A.J. Pierzynski, Russell Martin, Mike Napoli
VERDICT: I don't think JPA and D'Arnaud are an area of concern for the Jays. D'Arnaud could be a star in this league, and JPA is around league average. And they're both young and cost-controlled.

POSITION: First Base
INCUMBENT: Adam Lind
POSSIBLY ALSO: Edwin Encarnacion but he’s more of a DH, David Cooper but he seems destined to play AAA forever
TOP REPLACEMENTS: Nick Swisher, Adam LaRoche, Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman
VERDICT: I’d take Swisher over Lind in a second, but I think I’d rather take a chance that Edwin will get better defensively and leave the DH spot flexible.

POSITION: Second Base
INCUMBENT: Kelly Johnson, sorta, because he’s a Free Agent
POSSIBLY ALSO: Adeiny Hechavarria
TOP REPLACEMENTS: Marco Scutaro, Adam Kenney, Maicer Izturis
VERDICT: They Jays are probably going to have to re-sign Kelly Johnson, or trade for another 2B, because Scutaro is 37, injury prone, and not nearly as good as his recent stretch with San Francisco would lead one to believe. However, if they Jays brought him back to Toronto for another stint, I wouldn't be disappointed.

POSITION: Third Base
INCUMBENT: Brett Lawrie
POSSIBLY ALSO: No-one obvious
TOP REPLACEMENTS: Jeff Keppinger, Eric Chavez, Kevin Youkilis
VERDICT: Brett Lawrie is hopefully going to develop more power and become a star.

POSITION: Short Stop
INCUMBENT: Yunel Escobar
POSSIBLY ALSO: Adeiny Hechavarria, Mike Aviles
TOP REPLACEMENTS: Maicer Izturis, Ronny Cedeno, Stephen Drew
VERDICT: I’d rather role with Yunel, but if the Jays can somehow get a decent return for him in the trade market, I’m fine with Aviles until Adeiny is ready. Aviles is a surprisingly good defender with a bat that has, at times, been good. Sounds a lot like Yunel. Minus the alleged homophobia and general unlikeableness.

POSITION: Left Field
INCUMBENT: Rajai Davis
POSSIBLY ALSO: Colby Rasmus, Anthony Ghose, Moises Sierra
TOP REPLACEMENTS: Melky Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Shane Victorino
VERDICT: I’ve written before that I want the Jays to be the team that signs Melky to his one-year redemption contract. Obviously I’d love to have Josh Hamilton, too, but I think Melky for one year is a better risk-reward scenario than Hamilton for 6+ years of guaranteed mega-millions. I like Victorino, but I think he's best used in centre, and I don't like his bat much anymore.

POSITION: Centre Field
INCUMBENT: Colby Rasmus
POSSIBLY ALSO: Anthony Ghose
TOP REPLACEMENTS: Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino
VERDICT: Oof, this is a tough one. I love Bourn, but all-speed no power guys tend to age very poorly, especially when they strike out the way Bourn does. Pagan is a good player and highly underrated but is 32 next year. B.J. Upton is a very intriguing possibility, and I’d love to throw my hat in with him. I think his bat would play well enough in Toronto to complement his solid fielding and base running. If I could jettison Rasmus for BJ, I absolutely would. All that being said, I like the idea of sitting on Rasmus for maybe another year while Gose matures, and then hopefully Gose becomes the CF of the next 8 years for the club. I’m sticking to the Rasmus-Gose plan in this case, but only barely, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if I regretted it.

POSITION: Right Field
INCUMBENT: Jose Bautista
POSSIBLY ALSO: Moises Sierra
TOP REPLACEMENTS: Torii Hunter, Nick Swisher, Ichiro, Cody Ross
VERDICT: I would MAYBE replace Bautista with 2004-Ichiro…only because that was when he was a defensive stud, a very good base runner, and a very good hitter. That’s how good Bautista is—I’d take him now, coming off an injury-shortened season at the age of 32, over 2004 Ichiro.

POSITION: Starting Pitchers
INCUMBENTS: Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Henderson Alvarez, J.A. Happ, Aaron Laffey
POSSIBLY ALSO: Drew Hutchison if he returns from Tommy John surgery, Brett Cecil
TOP REPLACEMENTS: Zack Greinke, Hiroki Kuroda, Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, Joe Blanton, Francisco Liriano, Brandon McCarthy Shaun Marcum
VERDICT: I think Morrow is a legit number 2, Alvarez is worthy of a rotation spot, and that Romero isn't completely washed up. I could even be coaxed into believe that J.A. Happ is a decent number 5.
So the Jays need at least one more stud starter and (assuming the team plans to compete) probably two.
I'd go after Greinke for sure. 6-years and $120 million would hopefully get it done, and I think he's worth it. However, I wouldn't want to offer more.
I also think Ryan Dempster is worth a short-term deal (3 years tops), because he's been good for a while now and probably won't fetch too much because of his age. If he wants less than $13 million per season, done.
Edwin Jackson, as I've said before, and ditto Anibal Sanchez, are high on my list. I have no clue what they're going to get in free agency, but my guess is it's going to be a lot. If they were willing to take 5 years or less and $15 million per or less I'd sign both.
I wouldn't go near Lohse, whose main skill appears to be a massive reduction in BABIP over the last 2 seasons. He also has a low HR/FB rate. That would make sense if he gave up mostly ground balls, which he doesn't, or got guys to swing and miss a lot, which he doesn't (not even league average).
The new-improved Brandon McCarthy, and ex-Jay and change-up master Shaun Marcum, should be fall-back plans.
Kuroda is good, but he'll be going back to the west coast or the Yankees for a big 1-year deal.
The Jays need to add at least 1, but ideally 2, top-notch starting pitchers. Any two of Greinke, Sanchez, Dempster, Jackson, Marcum, and McCarthy (assuming he's healthy), would be nice.


POSITION: High-Leverage Relief Pitcher
INCUMBENTS: Casey Janssen, Sergio Santos, Darren Oliver 
POSSIBLY ALSO: Aaron Loup, Steve Delabar, Luis Perez, Brandon Lyon, Jason Frazor, Brad Lincoln
TOP REPLACEMENTS: Grant Balfour, Jonathan Broxton, Jeremy Affeldt, Jason Grilli, Joel Peralta, Mike Adams, Rafael Soriano, Jose Valverde, K-Rod
VERDICT: I like the Jays bullpen enough to not want to mess with it. I don't like spending money on a bullpen, and I don't think the Jays should either.

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