Jays First Half Report Card

I read Richard Griffin’s report card today in the Toronto Star, so I’m going to give out grades for the Jays, too. Unlike Griffin, I’m not grading on a curve (I don’t care what expectations were coming into the season or what the player’s salary is because those are beyond his control). I only care about production. Not just at the plate or in the field or on the base paths, but overall production. I’ll do the hitters today and the pitchers tomorrow, because it takes a long time to write this brilliant material.

HITTERS

Jose Bautista A (22nd overall fWAR, 3.1)

According to fWAR, he has been the most valuable Blue Jay overall thus far, and the second most valuable at the plate. After a bad start, he has his wOBA up to .381 (very good) and is on pace to roughly 6.0 WAR (anything over 5.0 is all-star caliber). He should lead the league in HRs for the 3rd straight season. Bautista also plays average-ish defense and is an above-average base runner, and with his eye at the plate and power that should make for an MVP candidate. If his BABIP improves, he’ll be just that.

Edwin Encarnacion A (30th overall fWAR, 2.8)

Still a mess in the field, E5 has more than made up for it with his team-best wRC+ (158, league average is 100), built off a .295/.382/.565 triple-slash and 23 home runs. His base running has been average, which is a surprise when you see that he has 9 stolen bases on the season. Look for him to keep up the hitting, as his BABIP is at his career norm and his HR/FB isn’t outlandishly high, either. The Jays might also be sellers, though, and he’d probably fetch a solid haul should they shop him.

Brett Lawrie A (34th overall fWAR, 2.7)

After compiling a 163 wRC+ in his 43 games in 2011, more was expected from Lawrie at the plate. However, he’s only 22 years old, and his 105 wRC+ and .291/.334/.425 line are still above average. Factor in his stellar defense at third base and his above-average base running (miscues included) and you have a borderline all-star. Power doesn’t typically peak in ball players until they’re roughly 25/26 years old, so if Lawrie can improve his plate discipline (4.9% walk rate is well below average) he’ll be able to square up better pitches and bring his 9.8% HR/FB rate up to the 15-20% power threshold. Nothing is guaranteed, but what Lawrie is doing at this age bodes well for his long-term future in the league.

Colby Rasmus A (37th overall fWAR, 2.6)

Rasmus is the 4th Blue Jay to have, by my standards, turned in a nearly all-star-worthy first half. As great as his power surge has been, his on-base-percentage (.328) is dragging down his overall performance at the plate, leaving him with a wRC+ of 119 (52nd in all of MLB). Of course, that’s still good. If he can improve his BABIP (.282 vs. league average of .294) and bring his walk rate back up to his career average, while also maintaining his power (his ISO is in line with his 2010 breakout with the Cardinals) we could be looking at a future perennial all-star. It doesn’t hurt that he grades out as an above-average fielder and base-runner, and he only turns 26 in a month.

Yunel Escobar B (59th overall fWAR, 1.5)

Escobar has been your typical all defense, no offense, short-stop so far this season. After a robust 116 wRC+ and .290/.360/.413 triple-slash in 2011, his bat has nose-dived to well-below-average levels. A .269 BABIP (career .309) isn’t helping, nor is a 6.1% walk rate (career 9.2%). The BABIP should return, as he’s hitting more ground balls and line drives, but he’ll never be a power hitter. It’ll be tough to improve the walk rate when he’s swinging at 5% more balls outside the strike zone. On the plus side, his defense grades out near the top in the league for short-stops, thanks to a sound glove and a strong, accurate arm. He also brings value on the base paths despite meh speed and few stolen bases. Look for the hitting coaches to work on his patience and get him back closer to where he was last season.

Kelly Johnson B (114th overall fWAR, 1.3)

Johnson has nearly personified mediocrity this season. In all three key areas (hitting, fielding, base running), he is basically right at the league average. A second baseman, who can hit at a league average rate, while also providing decent glove work and a little speed, is a solid asset. Johnson looks like he’s on his way to a respectable ~2.5WAR. Unfortunately, he looks worse when you wander over to Arizona’s 2B slot and see what Aaron Hill has done (for whom he was traded last season) but again, that’s not Johnson’s fault, and few saw Hill’s rebound coming (myself included). If Johnson’s second half mirrors his first, that’s just fine.

Rajai Davis C (158th overall fWAR, 0.9)

Rajai has played some pretty solid baseball this season, and had he amassed 300+ plate appearances as opposed to 201, his fWAR total would look a lot better. As it stands, he’s managed to be an above-average player in his somewhat limited opportunities. A 95 wRC+ is passable when you’re an above-average outfielder and a speed-demon. Davis has 23 stolen bases (against a mere 6 times caught) and is always looking to run. He has improved his plate discipline and added a little pop to his bat, and if he can get his BABIP back up to his career norms he should be able to stay around league average at the plate. His speed in the field and between the bases will add enough value on top of that to make him worthy of an everyday spot, and give the Jays a decent short-term solution in the outfield.

J.P. Arencibia D (191st overall fWAR, 0.7)

JPA’s defense has improved noticeably. Where he was arguably the worst defensive catcher in baseball in 2011, he is now something like just below league average. Defensive stats take time to stabilize, but he does seem to be better positioned behind the dish, and he has a cannon arm. His management of the pitching staff and pitch-framing could stand to improve, however he’s still very young and those skills can be developed. Alas, his bat has lost ground. The power remains (.201 ISO), but he’s walking far less and striking out more, which is never a good combination. An 82 wRC+ is fine for a catcher if he’s a defensive stalwart, but it’s not good otherwise. He’s barely major-league worthy, and the team has to be hoping that minor league catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud recovers from his injury fully and continues his ascent to the majors quickly.

Adam Lind D (negative fWAR)

Lind was horrific to start the season, and was rightfully demoted to Triple A. Since returning, he has 4 home runs in 46 plate appearances, which shows his power is still there. He’s also walked 4 times, but when you compare that to 11 strikeouts, it is still obvious that he has plate discipline issues. Rare is the player who can succeed with poor plate discipline, but if his swing tweaks lead to more fly balls and more power, then he could be one of those odd few who manage to add value with power alone. I’m very skeptical, but if the team refuses to give David Cooper a legitimate shot, then I hope Lind can at least be an average bat in the lineup.

Eric Thames F (negative fWAR)

A terrible fielder and a terrible hitter, Thames did nothing to deserve a spot on the team in his first 46 games this year. He didn’t walk enough, struck out far too often, and his power was almost non-existent. Since being demoted to AAA, his walk rate has skyrocketed and his strikeouts have dropped, but he could be one of those guys whose skill set doesn’t translate well to the majors. Look for him to get another shot this season, but if he doesn’t do anything with it, at 26 years old the team will be forced to give up on him.

Jeff Mathis C (191st overall fWAR 0.7)

Colour me baffled. A 6.3% walk rate, a 33.8% strikeout rate, but a .274 ISO. He’s clobbered his way to a 120 wRC+, but this reeks of small sample size. A guy with a career best .145 ISO (in 23 games in 2006) doesn’t suddenly become a home run God unless he’s also managed to identify meatballs and lay off the junk (among other things), which his walk and strikeout and contact rates do NOT support. His 25% HR/FB rate is the reason for the power outburst, but his 4.1% and 4.4% in 2011 and 2010 respectively, and a 7.4% career average, are far more telling. Look for a historically terrible hitter to come crashing back to earth in the second half. Hopefully JPA can pick up the pace to make up the difference. Or hopefully Mathis can hit another 5 home runs and make me look stupid.

Other Hitters

Yan Gomes was fun to watch burst onto the scene, before his own plate discipline issues caught up with him (2 walks vs. 13 strikeouts in only 38 plate appearances).

David Cooper came up, hit well, defended poorly, ran poorly, and then was demoted because, apparently, above-average hitters are a dime a dozen in this league…

Ben Francisco is awful. Pull the plug already. Can’t hit, can’t field, can’t run.

Omar Vizquel is still good defensively, and is so bad at the plate that he has no business playing in this league anymore. He’s 1/3 as good as the average MLB hitter.

Mike McCoy has had 9 plate appearances. He is probably a good defender and base runner, but he’s nothing more than a scrub sub.