Pitchers are always rising and falling in America
***BABIP means Batting Average on Balls In Play, and typically league average is .294 or so. Some players can sustain a much higher BABIP, and others much lower, based on their batted-ball profile. Line drives turn into hits the most, followed by ground balls, and then fly balls. If a player's BABIP suddenly rises well above his career norm, and his batted-ball profile hasn't changed much, it's typically luck and he'll likely revert back over time.***
At the all-star break, here are the batters who have underperformed their average-draft slot the most (due to performance and/or injuries):
Matt Kemp – injured
Albert Pujols – brutal start but coming on lately
Troy Tulowitzki – injured
Adrian Gonzalez – power has disappeared
Justin Upton – power has disappeared
Evan Longoria – injured
Jacoby Ellsbury – injured
Dustin Pedroia – hasn’t played well when healthy and has battled injury
Jose Reyes – BABIP and power outage
Hanley Ramirez – good start before reverting back to 2011 ways
Mark Teixeira – illness and approach issues appear to be resolved but still a first-half disappointment
Ryan Zimmerman – injury cost him time and effectiveness but improving recently
Pablo Sandoval – injury cost him 6 weeks but otherwise he’s played well
Desmond Jennings – probably shouldn’t have been ranked so highly in the first place, and he was hurt
Carlos Santana – hasn’t hit well and hasn’t shown signs of being able to this season
Dan Uggla – clearly this guy is a volatile player, so maybe his second half will be awesome
Mike Napoli – has become addicted to striking out
Kevin Youkilis – injuries were holding him down but a change of scenery seems to have invigorated him
Eric Hosmer – perhaps too much was expected too soon, and his BABIP woes have been awful
Michael Young – this could be the season where age catches up to him
Michael Morse – injuries took him out entirely and then hampered him but he’s starting to pick it up now
And here are the batters who have outperformed their average draft (or non-draft) slot the most:
Mike Trout – he was expected to be good, but who knew he’d be the best?
Edwin Encarnacion – he always had the potential, and now he’s making good on it
David Ortiz – he was probably written off too soon, but UT-only eligibility didn’t help
Carlos Beltran – apparently he still has a lot left in the tank when he’s healthy
Melky Cabrera – now that he cares about baseball, he’s good at it
Alex Rios – maybe he’s this good, maybe he’s not. He’s certainly unpredictable.
Jason Kipnis – this is just a case of not knowing whether a young prospect would break out or not
Ian Desmond – I’m not sold on him, but he seems to have figured out how to hit home runs anyway
Josh Reddick – apparently he’s good at baseball, even in O.CO.
Carlos Ruiz – I’m calling luck on this one. He’s always been solid, but this is ridiculous.
Austin Jackson – young guy with world-class talent finally figures it out, but BABIP is a big factor
Josh Willingham – always had a good bat, but now the power/patience combo is supreme
Jason Kubel – finally healthy and in a hitter’s park, with some luck sprinkled in
Alejandro De Aza – finally given a shot and doing the most with it
Colby Rasmus – so he IS as good as his dad says…or at least the Jays hope so
Adam Dunn – what the heck happened last season? He can’t hit lefties, but righties beware.
Yadier Molina – he’s the Yadiest of them all
Jose Altuve – good contact and good speed can mean good things
Dexter Fowler – with that surname, basketball was out of the question, but his dexterity plays well in baseball
Bryce Harper – he’s lived up to the hype, but Mike Trout has been better...and that MATTERS
Here are my second half rebound candidates:
Albert Pujols – he’ll continue to build off his recent success, and he’s Albert f***ing Pujols
Matt Kemp – he’ll be healthy, and when he’s healthy he’s fantastic
Adrian Gonzalez – he’s been too good historically for me to buy in to his demise
Jose Reyes – he’s just too good, and the gaps in his home park are too big
Ryan Zimmerman – he’ll get healthy, and then he’ll remind everyone that he’s a good hitter
Michael Morse – that breakout was no fluke, and with his health back he’ll show people
Kevin Youkilis – he isn’t that old, and he still has a great eye at the plate, and he's in a great park
Here are my second half non-rebound candidates (injured guys not included):
Justin Upton – he needs a change of scenery and to get more aggressive in the box
Hanley Ramirez – I’m done trying to figure out what’s wrong with him, he just hasn’t been good for whatever reason
Desmond Jennings – is it a rebound if it’s your second year? anyway, I don’t think he’s good. Yet.
Eric Hosmer – I think the breakout is still a year away
Carlos Santana – hope you’re feeling better, and can mend your evil ways, because you were everybody’s everything pre-draft
Michael Young – he is that old, and he doesn’t have a great eye at the plate
Adrian Gonzalez – how can he be on both lists? Simple, he’s been bad while also getting lucky on balls in play…ouch
Here are the hitters who I think will drop off the most after their unexpectedly strong first halfs (BABIP alert!):
Ian Desmond – I don’t trust guys with poor plate discipline who suddenly triple their HR/FB rate
Carlos Ruiz – he’s a good hitter, but not top-NL-hitters good (has a BABIP 67 points higher than his career average)
Austin Jackson – he’s a good hitter, but he’s too BABIP dependent for me to endorse him as a star
Carlos Beltran – I anticipate wear and tear will slow him down as the season drags on
Dexter Fowler – his second half will be fowler than his first half, unless he can go all dexter on the BABIP Gods
Melky Cabrera – I know I said that he’s good at baseball, but I don’t think he’s THIS good…BABIP fuels a lot of it
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