Blue Jays' Pitchers Report Card

As promised, here is my evaluation of the Toronto Blue Jays’ pitching staff thus far. It’s impressive that the team is 43-43 with this group.

Brandon Morrow A - 1.6 WAR, 7 Wins (W) 4 Losses (L), 3.01 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 3.88 xFIP, 3.82 SIERA

This is the Jays’ only good starter so far, and he’s out for another month. Morrow (before going down for 2 months with a strained oblique) was awesome. His 3.01 ERA is superior to his peripherals, but good strikeout pitchers are often able to outperform those. Mind you, Morrow’s ERA and peripherals have never moved in lock step, typically with a higher ERA than his supporting stats would suggest. Now he’s striking out fewer batters yet yielding better results. Go figure. Hopefully he can return to health and get enough quality starts under his belt to prove he’s a legit number 2 starter.  

Darren Oliver A - 0.8 WAR, 2 W 2 L, 9 Shutdowns (SD) 3 Meltdowns (MD), 1.42 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 2.69 xFIP, 2.36 SIERA

Not good that arguably Toronto’s second best pitcher is a 41-year-old situational-lefty who has thrown 31.2 innings. What he’s managed to do in those innings is impressive, though. This guy has been a very good reliever for a while now, after being a bad starter for about 8 years. That 88mph fastball sure is deceptive, and it grades out really well. In fact, according to PITCHf/x values, he doesn’t throw a below-average pitch of any kind. A good amount of his success has to do with stranding 92% of runners, which is just plain unsustainable (his career average is 71% and it’s only been over 79% once in the last 5 years), but I look forward to seeing how much longer ‘The Groid” can keep it up.

Casey Janssen A - 0.6 WAR, 1 W 1 L, 12 Saves, 9 SD 3 MD, 2.36 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 2.91 xFIP, 2.40 SIERA

WAR doesn’t care which inning you compile your stats in, which is probably unfair to Casey, who has been a shut-down machine since taking over the closer role. His numbers are right in line with what they were last year other than HR/FB rate (4.3% 2011, 13.3% 2012). Across the board, Janssen has been great. His strikeouts will probably drop a little (8.9% swinging strike rate is good but not great), but so should his HR/9, so I don’t see too much regression coming. At the very least, he should keep the closing job even after Santos returns. He’s so far the brightest mark on an otherwise bleak pitching season for the blue birds.

Carlos Villanueva B - 0.4 WAR, 3 W 0 L, 6 SD 1 MD, 3.05 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 3.50 SIERA

I’ll admit, I’m a fan of Carlos’. He appears to have changed his approach this season, and is now striking a lot of guys out (9.95 K/9) but also walking a lot (4.47 BB/9). Still, that’s a solid K/BB ratio (4 of his free passes have been intentional), and coupled with a robust 46.6% ground ball rate, he’s managed to strand 83% of runners. He still gives up too many home runs, but that number should come down closer to his career average. I don’t see any good reason not to move him into the starting rotation. In 234 innings as a starter in his career, he has an unsexy 4.81 ERA, and opponents have slugged .473 off of him. However, that includes a debacle of a season in 2009 where his ERA was a full run higher than his FIP or xFIP. He might not have the best stuff, but he’s a better option than Brett Cecil or Scott Richmond or David Pauley or Jesse Chavez or Joel Carreno or … you get my point.  

Drew Hutchison B - 0.6 WAR, 5 W 3 L, 4.60 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, 4.02 SIERA

I like this kid. Too bad he’s out with no timetable for his return. Before hurting his elbow though, he was looking solid, and at just 21 years of age that’s impressive for an AL East SP. He was a victim of the long ball, but I’m not convinced that opposing hitters will continue to convert 15% of their fly balls into home runs off him, especially since he appears to have decent control (3.07 BB/9) and strikeout stuff (7.52 K/9, and much higher in the minors). All told, despite only 58.2 innings of sample, Hutchison impressed in his first stint with the big club. Hopefully he can recover and get another 50+ innings under his belt this year, and eventually progress into a reliable top 3 rotation guy.

Luis Perez B - 0.4 WAR, 2 W 2 L, 7 SD 4 MD, 3.43 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.92 xFIP, 3.47 SIERA

Another guy who I liked, although at 27 he’s not quite a kid anymore. Regardless, he got ground balls (47.8%), struck guys out (8.36 K/9), and can kept the ball in the park (7.7% HR/FB). Perez had already thrown 42 innings in relief when he blew out the UCL in his left elbow, and I can’t help but wonder whether or not overuse was a factor. It doesn’t really matter now, and it’ll likely be September 2013 before (if) we see him on the mound again. Pray that he can enjoy a best-case-scenario recovery and get back to inducing swinging strikes on 10.5% of his pitches.

Henderson Alvarez C - 0.2 WAR, 5 W 7 L, 4.36 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 4.38 xFIP, 4.42 SIERA

Imagine Alvarez could strike guys out? His 3.02 K/9 is hilariously low, and it’s almost impossible to envision a guy surviving in MLB, let alone the AL East, with that inability to miss bats. His swinging strike rate is 4.6% (down almost 2 % from last year, when his K/9 was a blah 5.65), which ranks second last in the majors among qualified pitchers. Alvarez does some things well, like only walking 1.93 batters per 9 innings, but he also gives up a ton of home runs (18.3% of fly balls, 1.43 per 9 innings). Few strikeouts and lots of dingers is a terrible combination, but his 59.1% ground ball rate allows him to “get away with it”, if you call a 4.36 ERA getting away with it. He looks like he’ll be a number 4 or 5 guy in the rotation as long as he can keep inducing worm-burners, but he could be much better if he learned to fool some hitters into swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. At merely 22 years of age, he has plenty of time to develop those skills, but he’s going to have to learn to throw a better change up. Heaven forbid he should lose any velocity on his fastball.

Aaron Laffey C - 0.2 WAR, 0 W 1 L, 2.67 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA

Laffey isn’t a good pitcher. He doesn’t strike people out (4.47 K/9 career), he walks too many guys (3.46 BB/9 career), and his best season was a 2009 year with the Indians where he threw 121.2 innings of 4.44 ERA ball. Yet, he’ll take the mound for game two of the Jays’ upcoming series against his former team, and Toronto will be praying that he can get the Cleveland bats to line out enough times over 5 or 6 innings to grind out a win. Moving forward, he’ll likely serve as a long reliever and/or spot starter for the injury-riddled staff, but ideally it will be a lot more of the former than the latter.

Jason Frasor C - 0.3 WAR, 1 W 1 L, 11 SD 3 MD, 3.74 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 3.52 xFIP, 3.22 SIERA

Mr. Blue Jay (other than his cup of coffee with the White Sox in 2011, the Blue Jays are the only organization he’s known) has been his typical self—average production in relief and injury-free with solid Ks and an iffy walk rate. His home run rate has gone up, which is bad, but he’s managed to strand more runners, which has offset that. Both should stabilize somewhat, as his batted ball profile hasn’t changed much. Frasor will be what Frasor has always been—arguably the most forgettable relief man in MLB. He’s 34 with a 92.9mph fastball, so hopefully he can contribute for another 2 or 3 years.

Ricky Romero D - 0.2 WAR, 8 W 4 L, 5.22 ERA, 5.22 FIP, 4.58 xFIP, 4.73 SIERA

Things have really gone sour for Romero in 2012. Last year, he outperformed his underlying stats big time, en route to a career-best 2.92 ERA and an all-star game appearance. This year, he has pitched poorly, and he’s also suffered from bad luck with the long ball and stranding runners. Even if those correct themselves moving forward, he’s going to need to get his strikeouts back up (6.2 K/9 vs. 7.08 career) and his walks down (4.73 BB/9 vs. 3.72 career). His swinging strike rate has fallen off markedly, from a career-high 9.6% in 2011 to a below-league-average 7.9% this year. That’s mostly due to issues throwing first-pitch strikes, and a huge drop off in effectiveness with his fastball. Once a good pitch, in 2012 it has been terrible. The Change up has also decreased in effectiveness, likely due to the worsening of his fastball, but it’s still a plus pitch. Romero's velocity is in line with his career norm (0.7 mph less than it was last year) so he should be able to regain his form. Control issues have plagued many pitchers in the past for spells, but one with Romero’s talent should get over them and complete the second half with an ERA beneath the 4.00 mark. Of course, if the offense keeps propping him up the way it has, that would almost certainly result in an 18-win season for him.

Kyle Drabek F - negative WAR, 4 W 7 L, 4.67 ERA, 5.59 FIP, 5.03 xFIP, 5.36 SIERA

I am really not a fan of his game, and FIP/xFIP/SIERA all agree with me (or I agree with them). He has a solid arsenal, but what good are the tools if you don't know how to use them? A guy with poor control having another Tommy John surgery is probably a bad thing, long-term, for his career. I pray for him that isn’t the case, but the outlook is more bleak than glowing.

Francicso Cordero F – negative WAR, 3 W 5 L, 2 Saves 3 Blown Saves, 8 SD 8 MD, 6.00 ERA, 5.67 FIP, 4.64 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA

This guy stinks like the valet in that classic Seinfeld episode, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Two obvious solutions for the Cordero problem: 1) cut him. 2) Trade him. Like Jerry with the BMW, I don’t think Alex Anthopolous is going to be able to find a taker, so cutting him is probably the best option. This guy is not good at pitching anymore. If he rediscovers his past glory, I’ll be shocked. Name a stat, and his number/rate is bad—he strikes out too few, walks too many, gives up far too many HRs, doesn’t get enough ground balls, and doesn’t strand runners. It’s over. No more soup for you. I really like Seinfeld.

A BUNCH OF OTHER Fs THAT I REFUSE TO FULLY DISSECT:

Brett Cecil – apparently 85pmh up in the zone with no movement is exactly what hitters want you to throw them

Jesse Chavez – not as bad as you think when looking at his ERA, but still not a MLB pitcher

Joel Carreno – walk machine

Evan Crawford – home run machine

Sergio Santos – struggled and then got hurt/injured

David Pauley – ugh

Robert Coello – ugh

Chad Beck – if not now, then never…so never

Drew Carpenter – see above