Nikolai Kulemin: So Good he's Bad

On the surface, Nikolia Kulemin took a big step forward in 2010-2011, and then a big step back in 2011-2012. Did he really? Did he? Really?


*all years referenced below denote the year the season ended, so the 2010-2011 season will just be called 2011*

In 2009, as a rookie, Kulemin recorded a respectable 31 points, and a -8 in the +/- department. He followed that up with 36 and 0, and then a nice 57 and 7, before falling off to a mere 28 and 2 last year. On the surface that looks bad, but digging deeper shows that last year was perhaps his best.

For starters, Kulemin played 82 healthy games in 2011 vs. only 70 games in 2012. Additionally, he averaged 17.32 minutes per game in 2011 vs. 15.22 minutes per game in 2012. So he played 2 less minutes per game and 12 less games, totaling 354.8 more minutes in 2011 than he did in 2012. That’s a big gap (roughly 22 more games). His 28 points in 1065.17 minutes in 2012 translates into 37 points at his 2011 playing time.

Obviously that 20 point difference is still significant, but there are many mitigating factors. I’m going to focus on the massive goal differentials, since a player’s assists are largely dependent upon the play of his teammates and other random factors beyond his control, and Kulemin's assist totals really haven't varied that much.

In 2011, Kulemin converted 17.34% of his shots on net into goals scored. Compare that to his 11.63% as a rookie and 11.04% as a sophomore, and ~9% league average (8.94% in 2011 and 8.99% in 2012). Shooting percentages take a while to stabilize, as long as 3 years, and there can be significant variation from one season to the next. Sure enough, after shooting at a seriously high rate in 2011 (Steven Stamkos career shooting % is 17) he saw a huge dropoff to 6.54% in 2012. Kulemin’s career shooting rate is 12.27%. Assuming he shot at that rate in all 4 seasons, here are his goal totals:

2009 – 16
2010 – 18
2011 – 21
2012 – 13

That still looks bad for 2012, but we have to keep digging, because there’s more to be learned (yay)! Kulemin’s shots per minute stats throughout his career are as follows:

2009 – 0.128
2010 – 0.114
2011 – 0.122
2012 – 0.100

Obviously he shot less frequently in 2012, which isn’t a good thing if it’s a continuous trend. Maybe it was injuries, maybe it was poor linemates, and maybe it was talent/skill erosion. I doubt it. It’s more likely that it was simply random variation. Look at the differences from one year to the next--0.014, then 0.008, then 0.022. Those aren’t remarkable gaps, and they look fairly similar in size. I could do an NHL-wide variance analysis for shooting rates, but I don’t want to. It passes the smell test for me, and for the purposes of this blog that’s good enough.

Controlling for his minutes played (which are “earned” but also are out of his control to a large extent) and controlling for his shooting percentage (which I’ve already mentioned can carries a lot of volatility) so that he gets his career average in both categories, here are the number of goals he would’ve scored based on his shooting frequency (shots on net per minute played) each year:

2009 – 19
2010 – 17
2011 – 18
2012 – 15

Suddenly, his 2011 season doesn’t look so great, and his 2012 looks less awful.

One final element to consider—the level of competition that he faced in those seasons. Jim Corsi, a former goalie coach for the Buffalo Sabres, developed a stat called, not surprisingly, Corsi. A variation of it, called CORSI REL QOC, measures quality of competition as a rate stat (per 60 minutes). Since starting in the NHL, Kulemin’s Corsi Rel QoC has been 0.367, 0.297, 0.464, and 0.892 in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. The level of competition that he faced last year was much better than the level of competition that he faced in earlier years, and basically twice what he matched up against in his highest scoring season of 2011.

If you multiply his minutes-and-shooting-percentages-adjusted goal totals by his Corsi Rel Qoc, you get this:

2009 – 7
2010 – 5
2011 – 8
2012 – 13

Let me recap:

Nikolia Kulemin joined the team 4 seasons ago. His ice time increased in both his second and third seasons, and then was reduced in his 4th season by over 2 minutes per game (possibly due to injury). His shooting percentage was flat-ish at ~11% for two years, a reasonable expectation, then sky-rocketed to elite-sniper level in his 3rd year, before plummeting to role-player level last year. There is a lot of random variation in shooting percentages. His shots per minute of play has remained pretty steady since he started, despite the fact that the level of competition that he faced has increased significantly (this is almost certainly by design of the coaching staff).

When you adjust for the random variation in shooting percentages, ice time, games played, and the quality of competition, 2012 no longer looks like his worst season, it looks like his best. Keep in mind that despite his reduced goals totals and increased difficulty of opponent, his +/- remained positive.

Now that he’s an unrestricted free agent, his lower totals play to the favour of the Leafs organization from a negotiating standpoint. However, Kulemin’s agent will probably have crunched numbers that far surpass mine, showing him in a more favourable (and I believe more accurate) light.

As a fan of the Leafs, I hope the two sides can meet in the middle and keep Kulemin around for another 5 years or so. He’ll be 26 in a week, and if I were Brian Burke I’d try to wrap him up until he’s 30 for something in the neighbourhood of $22.5 million ($4.5 million per season).