Morrow of the Same?

The Toronto Blue Jays are reportedly about to sign Brandon Morrow to a 3 year deal worth $20million, with a team option for fourth year at $10million. If they don’t pick up the option, the Jays have to buy him out for $1million. Basically, this makes it a guaranteed 3-year, $21million deal. It buys out the final 2 years of Morrow’s arbitration eligibility plus his first year of free agency, and maybe his second too.

In his upcoming arbitration trial, Morrow was asking for $4.2million, while the Jays were offering $3.9million. Had they not reached this 3 or 4 year agreement it’s safe to say Morrow would’ve received about $4million.

So, why did the Jays decide to give him 3 years and $21million guaranteed? Apparently the Jays believe what almost every baseball analyst believes; Brandon Morrow is a far better pitcher than his ERA. It’s been proven empirically that there are 3 keys to a pitcher’s success: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Analysts use these 3 stats to create a metric called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP); what a pitcher’s ERA “should” have been given those inputs. Assuming a regression towards the league average in home run rate (the percentage of fly balls that result in home runs, ~10%), they calculate expected FIP (xFIP).

Of course, this ignores hits. The logic there is that once the ball is in play, it’s up to the defense to turn it into an out, assuming it doesn’t go over the fence. This stat, known as Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), is crucial. League average is usually around .295. Fly ball pitchers will tend to have lower BABIPs and higher home run rates, and the opposite is true of ground ball pitchers. If you strike out a lot of hitters you have good “stuff”, it’s harder to make solid contact, and your BABIP should be lower.

Brandon Morrow has excellent “stuff.” He is decidedly a fly ball (FB) pitcher. He strikes out batters at a very high rate (26.1%, 3rd in the majors among qualified pitchers), but he also walks a lot of them (8.9%, 16th). Morrow’s expected BABIP is ~.321 (he gives up too many line drives, and line drives tend to fall in for hits). His HR/FB rate is average, but since he gives up a lot of FBs he gives up more HRs. The high BABIP and the FBs partly explain the gap between his career ERA of 4.37 and his FIP/xFIP of 3.85/3.94. However, thanks to limiting base runners, the runs scored total should be lower. The other thing is, in the last two seasons his FIP/xFIP have dropped to all-star levels, while his ERA has maintained. When you look at his performance with runners on base, you start to see why his ERA is so high. His high-leverage-situation HR/FB rate sky rockets to 18.8% from ~9.5% normally, his infield hit % jumps to 20% from ~9%, and his FB rate climbs to 51.6% from ~41% while his ground ball rate drops from ~36% to 32.3%.

A lot of that is bad timing (basically bad luck), but it could also be difficulty pitching from the stretch (mechanical flaws or mental errors). Pitch F/X data would help verify this, but I don’t have access. The Blue Jays do, and my guess is that looking at it, they decided a lot of the bad timing was luck related.

If Morrow is going to earn this contract, he’ll have to be about average and stay healthy, not an all-star. Assuming a $4million arbitration award this season and 2 WAR (MLB average) in 2012, he’d get ~$7million next year in arbitration. With another 2 WAR in 2013, he’d be a free agent and looking at 3-5 years for ~$10million each (what Edwin Jackson will likely get). The Jays have paid him in line with that. If Morrow winds up being an all-star (like the stats predict) in the next two seasons, then he would probably be worth a C.J. Wilson-type deal. However, the Jays will have him for 2-years and only $20million.

Although I think this deal is “fair”, I wouldn’t have offered it. As much as I’m a stats guy, I’m also a see-it-to-believe-it guy. I would’ve given him his ~$4million this year, and if he pitches well then perhaps sign him long-term. If he pitches poorly or gets hurt, walk away. If he’s something in between, go back to arbitration and pay him ~$7million and keep hoping for his performance to match the underlying stats. I believe that you should only give up team control when you have a more concrete player. In addition to the always-present injury issue for pitchers, Morrow has had a real performance disconnect.

When a person looks good on the outside, but is soft and unhealthy, they’re called skinny-fat, and it’s only a matter of time before the surface reflects this. The Jays just bet that Morrow is the opposite of that.

***OBVIOUSLY THE PRINCE FIELDER SIGNING MASSIVELY OVERSHADOWS THIS--I WILL HAVE A POST UP TONIGHT ABOUT THAT BEFORE 9PM***