A Deal Fit for a Prince

Prince Fielder is fat, older than you think (he’ll be 28 on May 9), runs slower than everyone who ever got caught by the bad guy in a horror movie, and 5’11” and 275lbs. according to his player page on Yahoo! Sports, give or take a few dozen veggie hamburgers. His last name is the least accurate description of what he is capable of doing on a baseball diamond.

And now, Prince Fielder is a very, very rich man. Why? Because he can hit a baseball better than nearly anyone on the planet, and has been doing that for over 5 years. The Detroit Tigers are counting on him doing it for another 9.

Today it was announced that the heir to the throne will call Comerica Park his castle for the foreseeable future. For at least a few years it should be a great thing for Tigers fans. For Fielder, it’s a $214million thing. Daddy probably no like…

Generally speaking, when a player as good and young as Fielder is available as a free agent, the media coverage is positive. Imagine Ryan Braun Joey Votto was an unrestricted free agent this season. Teams would’ve been lining up to make a pass at him, and he’s a year older than Prince. Matt Kemp, he of the one superb, one good, and one terrible season in the last three years, got 8 years and $160million, and he’s the same age as Prince, and wasn’t unrestricted. But with Fielder, the entire story has been one of pessimism. When he still hadn’t signed by mid January, everyone assumed he was going to have to take less years and less money. WRONG! His agent is Scott Boras, and Boras knows a thing or two about getting his clients more money than most sound-minded people think they deserve.

I’m sure you noticed the big chart at the top of the page. Lotsa numbers there. That is the hypothetical career that I’ve put together for Prince over the next 9 seasons. It’s an example of what he’ll need to do to earn his pay. If you’re scoring at home and realize the input doesn’t match the AVG or OBP or whatever, that’s because I’ve hidden some columns for practicality.

GP: Games Played, PA: Plate Appearances, AB: At Bats

Prince has to be very healthy for a good chunk of time to have a shot at producing the output required. I have him being really healthy until he’s 34. A 275 pound man’s 34 is a 175 pound man’s 44, or so I’m told. I don’t know any 275 pound men.

BB: Walks, BB%: Percentage of PA that he walks in, OBP: On Base Percentage

He’s going to need to keep walking at an elite level. Generally this skill ages well, and he’s among the best at it. The 15% that I started him at is conservative, actually. His last three seasons: 15.3%, 16.0%, and 15.5%. The fat-man can lay off the garbage, apparently, so he gets on base really, really well. That’s a huge asset, and one that doesn’t really diminish much with age. It’ll go down as his hits go down and his hands slow down, but his eyes should be fine until he’s 36.

H: Hits, K: Strikeouts, K%: Percentage of PA that he strikes out in, AVG: Batting Average

I hid the BABIP column, but I kept the K% and BABIP in line with his career totals. Prince will have to if he cares to earn the contract. Who said he cares to earn the contract? I did. I’m sure it’ll wear off.

2B: Doubles, HR: Home Runs, SLG: Slugging Percentage, ISO: Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average (it’s a power metric)

This is why fans pay to watch Prince (other than the fact that he helps his team win games). Prince can hit the snot out of the ball. Guess what—Comerica Park is a good park for left-handed hitters. 330 down the right field line. 365 to right centre. Sure it’s 420 straight up the gut, but that’ll help with the ol’ 2B totals, assuming he can still make it that far once he’s on the dark side of 30. Oddly, power tends to peak around 26 years old (apparently baseball never heard of old man strength—tell it not to arm wrestle my dad). Hence, you see his ISO dropping about 10 points per year, and coupled with his declining batting average, so does his SLG. Surprisingly, Prince has only slugged over .600 twice, and over .550 3 times. He’s slugged under .500 three times, too. Anyway, projecting a .548 SLG probably seems light, but like I said the power tends to start diminishing right around this age.

wOBA: Weighted On Base Average

I really hope you visit my blog daily, so here is a link to a stat that I will reference a LOT. It’s crucial. If you click that link, a short, simple explanation will pop up. If you click the links on that page, it can get complicated. You choose. Or you could just take my word for it; wOBA is THE hitting stat. Last year Jose Bautista lead with .441. The year before it was Josh Hamilton at .447. Leave average was about .316 in last year’s offense-deprived MLB. Anything over .380 is awesome.  Get over 600 plate appearances and a wOBA above .380, and you’re a no-doubt all-star. Graduate to retirement with enough years and a wOBA at that level, and start practicing your Cooperstown speech. Prince will have to be at that awesome level for 6 full seasons before he starts his drop off, otherwise he will NOT be worth $214million.

POS: Positional Adjustment

Now wait a second. Does a guy really have to hit like the HGH poster boy to earn this contract? Yes, he does, if he’s going to be a DH or continue to play 1B the way Prince has. We have to seriously adjust his output to account for the fact that he’s playing the easiest or second easiest position in any sport. His defense is so bad that he almost provides negative value. You’re better off not letting him field. Also, don’t let him try to steal, and the third base coach had better realize real fast that Prince is real slow. I told you his physical dimensions. That is not a pretty sight coming around second, and it’s terrifying when he’s coming around third—just ask opposing catchers.

REP: Replacement Factor

That’s just the weighted number of runs an average MLB player would contribute in that many plate appearances. It’s needed for WAR, because WAR is Wins ABOVE REPLACEMENT, not Wins Above Average. That is key. It’s how many wins the team would forfeit if they replaced a real MLB player with, say, Alex Rios me.

WAR: Wins Above Replacement

The final tally. According to Dave Cameron at Fangraphs.com, 1.0 WAR is worth $5million this offseason. He’s been almost bang on, so we’ll use that number. Some teams have paid more, some less. It depends on where you are on the win curve. I’ve got Prince starting off at 5.93 WAR (his highest ever is 6.4 and last year it was 5.5) and then dropping off about .45-.50 per year, if he's going to earn the moolah. That’s a typical drop off for most guys as they age beyond 28, but for a guy with Fielder’s body, I predict the drop-off, when it begins (my guess is age 32), to be much starker than that—at least double the rate of decrease. Regardless, Fielder needs to accumulate 36+ WAR somehow. It doesn't have to be the way I laid it out, but I honestly don't see many alternatives given what is known about Prince.

As I’ve been saying, this is a pretty aggressive scenario. It is almost certainly the best case, or at least very close to it. Even then, ol’ Princey boy only winds up out-earning his contract by $140,000.

So why would Detroit do this? For Detroit, every extra win is crucial, since they need to make hay while the sun shines. Sun shines=Verlander and Cabrera (and some other guys) are still young and healthy and excellent. What’s the point of having those guys if you’re going to win 85 games and miss the playoffs? Add Prince and you should win 90+ and make the playoffs, and as the St. Louis Cardinals have shown us twice in recent history: once you’re in, anything can happen (THAT’S WHAT SHE SAID). So they went out and spent $214million on the best available free agent hitter (I wonder if they’d rather have had Pujols at $240million), and they’re crossing their fingers that he comes through with at least a few playoff appearances and World Series.

Prince accepted the offer because it’s definitely the best he could have reasonably expected, and because he has a chance to make baseball history on a team that already has one of the few hitters in the game better than him, as well as arguably the best pitcher in the American League (NOBODY is better than Roy Halladay).

Prince Fielder should probably change his name to Prince Hitter. Detroit’s ownership is just hoping that Prince Sh*tter isn’t more a propos.