DeMar DeRozan is conspicuously absent from that list. With an APER of 9.54, he is the 33rd ranked SG, and yet he is starting and playing 33.2 minutes per game. On his own team, Leandro Barbosa is ranked 18th among SGs, at 13.93 APER, and is playing 22.8 minutes per game.
DeMar’s APER in 34.8 MPG last season was 14.32, above the average of 14.24, and 18th overall (Barbosa was 12th at 15.79). It was only his second season, and he was trending in the right direction. The Raptors are trying to develop DeMar DeRozan, and they think he has potential to be an all-star, but clearly his development has stalled, and this ought to be addressed by the coaching staff and management. His 2012 productivity is down across the board, and since Bargnani’s injury his numbers have plummeted: in the last 5 games, he’s 27/88 from the field and 2/11 from beyond the arc. The deeper stats illustrate why.
DeRozan is not a spot-up shooter. He needs to be attacking the rim, cutting, moving off the ball. Still not a great ball-handler, his dribble-drive game is improving, but still not good. He’s still getting shots at the rim at about the same rate as last season, but he’s making 17% less of those shots. This is largely due to a higher percentage of his shots being blocked, and his converting a much lower percentage of “and 1s.” His shots from 3-9 feet, however, are still dropping, somewhat offsetting this. It’s from 10-15 and 16-23 feet that DD’s really struggling. From 10-15 feet, he made 46.6% of his shots last season, but this season, 33.3%. From 16-23 feet, he made 40% of his shots last year, and that’s way down to 26%. He’s taking fewer of those, but needs to cut back drastically; the three point shot should not be a big part of his game right now. Rounding out his offensive woes, his offensive rebounding rate has dropped to 2/3 of what it was last year.
A lot of this can be attributed to Andrea Bargnani being out, so until he returns healthy we shouldn’t take DeMar’s numbers at full face value. DD’s receiving more attention on and off the ball, and defenders can cheat to help out on him in the paint without a bona fide scoring big man to distract them. This in turn allows perimeter defenders to stay much closer to him, giving him less time and space to get off those 10-23 foot shots that he’s missing so many of.
His defense has also regressed. He is making fewer defensive plays per game this season, rebounding less, and fouling more. New coach Dwane Casey should be able to help improve that (if his defensive reputation is deserved), and young shooting guards focusing on becoming all-star scorers are seldom good defenders.
DeMar is only in his second full-time season, 22 years old, and playing on a condensed schedule where needed practice and coaching time are scarce. He needs time to perfect his shot and work on his play-making in non-game situations.
I don’t see any reason to force DeMar to be a focal point of the offense so soon. His confidence is suffering, which is likely part of the issue with his long-range shot and ability to finish in traffic. I suggest that the Raptors bring Demar off the bench for a while. Let him take advantage of weaker match-ups and tired defenders, with less pressure on him. I’m sure Leandro Barbosa’s stats will suffer, as he’s accustomed to the same match-up luxuries that I’m suggesting DeRozan be allowed to benefit from, but who cares? Leandro Barbosa is not the future of the team, and the team can’t get much worse than it is right now—developing their youngsters is the key. The Thunder took the slow approach with James Harden, and it’s paying huge dividends. I’m not saying DeRozan and Harden are perfectly comparable (for so many reasons they are not). But it’s a good example of how to be patient with a young player, let him develop his skills and learn his strengths in a lower-pressure environment against lesser opponents. Once the player is dominant in that role, increase his responsibility.
This is certainly a tough time for DeRozan, but it’s early. My theory is that when it comes to his playing time, less will result in more.
DeRozan is not a spot-up shooter. He needs to be attacking the rim, cutting, moving off the ball. Still not a great ball-handler, his dribble-drive game is improving, but still not good. He’s still getting shots at the rim at about the same rate as last season, but he’s making 17% less of those shots. This is largely due to a higher percentage of his shots being blocked, and his converting a much lower percentage of “and 1s.” His shots from 3-9 feet, however, are still dropping, somewhat offsetting this. It’s from 10-15 and 16-23 feet that DD’s really struggling. From 10-15 feet, he made 46.6% of his shots last season, but this season, 33.3%. From 16-23 feet, he made 40% of his shots last year, and that’s way down to 26%. He’s taking fewer of those, but needs to cut back drastically; the three point shot should not be a big part of his game right now. Rounding out his offensive woes, his offensive rebounding rate has dropped to 2/3 of what it was last year.
A lot of this can be attributed to Andrea Bargnani being out, so until he returns healthy we shouldn’t take DeMar’s numbers at full face value. DD’s receiving more attention on and off the ball, and defenders can cheat to help out on him in the paint without a bona fide scoring big man to distract them. This in turn allows perimeter defenders to stay much closer to him, giving him less time and space to get off those 10-23 foot shots that he’s missing so many of.
His defense has also regressed. He is making fewer defensive plays per game this season, rebounding less, and fouling more. New coach Dwane Casey should be able to help improve that (if his defensive reputation is deserved), and young shooting guards focusing on becoming all-star scorers are seldom good defenders.
DeMar is only in his second full-time season, 22 years old, and playing on a condensed schedule where needed practice and coaching time are scarce. He needs time to perfect his shot and work on his play-making in non-game situations.
I don’t see any reason to force DeMar to be a focal point of the offense so soon. His confidence is suffering, which is likely part of the issue with his long-range shot and ability to finish in traffic. I suggest that the Raptors bring Demar off the bench for a while. Let him take advantage of weaker match-ups and tired defenders, with less pressure on him. I’m sure Leandro Barbosa’s stats will suffer, as he’s accustomed to the same match-up luxuries that I’m suggesting DeRozan be allowed to benefit from, but who cares? Leandro Barbosa is not the future of the team, and the team can’t get much worse than it is right now—developing their youngsters is the key. The Thunder took the slow approach with James Harden, and it’s paying huge dividends. I’m not saying DeRozan and Harden are perfectly comparable (for so many reasons they are not). But it’s a good example of how to be patient with a young player, let him develop his skills and learn his strengths in a lower-pressure environment against lesser opponents. Once the player is dominant in that role, increase his responsibility.
This is certainly a tough time for DeRozan, but it’s early. My theory is that when it comes to his playing time, less will result in more.
No comments:
Post a Comment