Colby Rasmus

Born: August 11, 1986 in Columbus, Georgia
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 200 lbs.
Position: CF
Drafted: 2005, 28th overall by St.Louis Cardinals
2012 MLB season: 4

As a player with a brief but colourful MLB history, Colby Rasmus brings to the table an element of intrigue for Jays fans in 2012. The Toronto Blue Jays organization is going to give him ample opportunity to show that he's more than just a titillating talent.

Colby Rasmus was dealt to the Blue Jays on July 27, 2011 for Edwin Jackson (who the Jays got in exchange for Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart), Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski, Corey Patterson, and 3 players to be named later or cash. The Jays also received some other players in the deal, but they're inconsequential.

This was exactly the kind of low-risk-high-reward deal that Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos made with Yunel Escobar. Escobar wound up being very good for the Jays, and I have faith that Rasmus will also.

After putting up impressive, albeit unspectacular, numbers in the minors for 3 seasons, the Cards brought Rasmus up for good in 2009 and played him 147 games. He hit about 11% worse than an average major leaguer, but he flashed a solid arm and very good range in the field. All told, the 23 year-old was worth about 2.8 wins above replacement (WAR). In 2010 he flipped the script, and hit like a star while fielding poorly. He was worth about 4.3 WAR and was 29% above-average at the plate; as a 24-year-old that is pretty darn impressive. Rasmus' walk and strikeout rates both rose significantly, as did his power, however his BABIP and HR/FB-ratio jumps were the most noticeable differences. Those are bright red flags, and something to watch for the following season. Sure enough, his BABIP in St.Louis the next season dropped from .354 to .286, and his HR/FB rate dropped from 14.8% to 8.3%. As a result, he was merely 10% above average at the plate, and coupled with his further regressing defense his WAR, in just under 2/3 of a season, was about 1.3. That makes him something like a league-average player.

Rasmus' falling out in St.Louis has been well documented, so I won't go any further into it.

After being traded to Toronto, he proceeded to hit terribly and with brutal BABIP and HR/FB. The sample size was small, and sometimes a league change can throw a player off, but that's obviously less than ideal for the Jays.

Heading into 2012, his first full season as a Blue Jay, Rasmus is looking to put 2011 behind him, especially the second half. Is that going to happen? It's tough to tell with the volatility of his performance to this point.

For starters, I think it's unrealistic to expect his defense to rebound to his first-year level. My guess is he's something like below-average in centre field (CF), but just good enough to play there full-time. From a WAR standpoint, he's probably half a win in the red in that area. He's a very good base runner though, which should recover some of that loss, and playing a premium position will probably bring him back to even before you allow his bat into the equation.

So what will his bat add? Well, according to the simple xBABIP calculator, his BABIP should be something like .315 (his career BABIP is .298). His career HR/FB rate is roughly 10.8%. That's all in line with league average, so expecting more of the same isn't unreasonable. His career walk rate is 9.4%, but in his last two years with the Cards it was over 11.7%, and his strikeout rate is about 22.7%. If he can walk roughly 10% of the time and strike out roughly 20% of the time, while maintaining his BABIP and HR/FB rates, then he'll likely be an above-average hitter. The consensus projection posted on fangraphs.com is something like:

550 Plate Appearances
20 Home Runs
75 Runs
65 Runs Batted In
8 Stolen Bases
.260/.330/.440 Batting Average/On Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage
.335 Weighted On Base Average

That'd make him something like 5-10% better than the typical hitter. At 26 years old and on a 1-year, $2.7million arbitration contract, that's really good. He'll have two more years of arbitration eligibility, and then in 2015 he's a free agent. The Jays might have an above-average centre fielder under team control until he's 28 years old. If Rasmus reverts back to his solid-hitting, passable-fielding ways, I'm assuming the Jays will try to lock him up through his age 32 season and buy out his final two years of arbitration eligibility. My guess is the contract would be in the 5-year, $45million range. Obviously if Rasmus goes bananas then they'll try to lock him up sooner, for longer, but also for more money. If Rasmus is below-average (or worse), they can go back to arbitration and pay him about 60% of his fair market value (or cut him).

The talent is there, and perhaps more importantly, the support from the organization is there.

Rasmus will be given a long leash this year. If he can capitalize on that opportunity, the deal the Jays put on the table will be very appealing.