Beyond the Box Score: Henderson Alavrez

The Jays may have lost the game, but Henderson Alvarez looked solid Monday night (home opener vs. the Red Sox). His fastball routinely hit 95mph and had good life to it, and his slider and change-up gave hitters a tough time, too.

The simple box score will tell you that he threw 95 pitches (59 strikes, 36 balls) over 6 innings. He struck out 2 and walked 1, gave up 4 hits, induced 1 double play, and was tagged for 1 earned run via a home run by Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia. That's good for a 1.50ERA and a 0.83WHIP.

Underneath, it wasn't quite as good, but considering it was against the Red Sox vaunted line-up, it was still impressive. Alvarez' xFIP was 3.79, a far cry from his 1.50ERA. The main reason of course is the home run, and the lack of strikeouts. Additionally, the hard ground balls that found gloves will likely result in more base knocks moving forward. At least he only walked 1 batter, which is great against a patient group of hitters like the Red Sox.

Alvarez throws hard and has a nice sinking fastball, but when a pitch that fast flattens out up in the zone, good hitters (like Pedroia) will hit it a long way. His slider and change-up can lure swinging strikes, and he'll need to use them more effectively (Mike Aviles looked silly on an 87mph strike 3 to end the 3rd inning). The Red Sox are remarkably poised at the plate, but only 2 strikeouts in 6 innings is unnerving from a guy who has never averaged over 7 strikeouts per 9 innings at any level of professional baseball.

I'd like to see him (and Arencibia) mix the pitch selection up a little to get the K-rate up. I've heard that sliders are hard on a pitcher's arm, but I'd like to see his fastball usage drop to 45-55%, and his slider and change-up come up to the 20-25% (each) level.

I still stand by my prediction that his ERA will finish closer to 4.25 than 3.50, but given his age and arsenal, I'm optimistic that (barring injury) he'll be a top 3 pitcher for the Blue Jays for the next half-decade at least.