Second Baseman (2B)
February 22, 1982
Austin, Texas
Bats Left, Throws Right
6’1”, 195lbs.
Drafted 38th overall in 2000
Trade in exchange for Aaron Hill and John McDonald
1-year, $6.375million contract for 2012
KJ is probably the most difficult Blue Jay to project. He has been an extremely volatile performer on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball.
The aggregate has been good, though. He’s played basically 5 MLB seasons in total, from 2005 to 2011, and his 150 game averages are:
604 Plate Appearances
68 Walks/Hit by Pitch
30 Doubles
6 Triple
17 Home Runs
83 Runs
64 Runs Batted In
127 Strikeouts
11 Stolen Bases
.260/.343/.441 AVG/OBP/SLG
.343 wOBA
That amounts to about 7% better than the average MLB hitter, adjusted for Ball Park and opposition. That’s good, especially considering the fact that he plays 2B and is about a league average defender at the position. His 16.8 total Fangraphs Wins above Replacement (fWAR) gives him an average of 3.16 WAR per 600 plate appearances, meaning he’s roughly 1.5 times better than the average MLB player.
In 2012, based on contracts signed and trades done, 1 WAR is “worth” about $5million. The Jays are paying KJ under $6.4million for 2012, with no promises for anything beyond that. If he can live up to his career averages, he will be a “bargain.”
Which KJ shows up will either make the deal great or terrible. His 2007, 2008, and 2010 seasons were all very good for him at the plate. He hit 17%, 9%, and 28% above MLB average, and again anything above average for a 2B is excellent. In the two former years he was graded as a very poor defender, but in 2010 he ranked near the top for his position. The bad years at the plate, though, were very bad. In 2009, his last season with the Braves before they let him go to sign with Arizona, he hit 16% worse than average, was rated a below-average defender, and was barely worth more than replacement-level. Last season in Arizona was equally bad for him at the plate, before he came to Toronto and started hitting again. It was a down year in baseball for offense, so his numbers weren’t as bad in comparison, but were it not for his defense he would’ve barely been worthy of a full-time MLB roster spot.
The Blue Jays, by virtue of allowing him to go to arbitration and refusing to grant him a long-term contract, have acknowledged the difficulty in assessing KJ's value. I liked the Aaron Hill trade. I think KJ is the better player short and long term. Arizona went on to sign Hill to an $11million contract despite him having only played one good month in the last two seasons. Even a down year for KJ would be better than what Hill provided the Jays in 2011, and they can walk away after only 1 year.
The main culprit in KJ’s poor years (and main ally in his rich years) has been his performance on balls in player (BABIP). League average is typically between .290 and .300. Faster players with line-drive-hitting profiles can typically outperform this. KJ’s career BABIP is .311. In his bad years, though? .247 in 2009, and .257 last year before coming to Toronto. In his good years? .340 in 2008, and .339 in his monster 2010 season. In his 33 games with the Jays it was a robust .346. His HR/FB ratio has also played a big role. Typically, 10% is to be expected for HR/FB. Obviously a more powerful player will be higher, and vice versa. KJ’s career rate is 11.4%. His monster 2010 season saw that spike to 15.6%, whereas his terrible 2009 saw it drop to 7.5%. KJ’s career 21.2% line drive rate has fluctuated too, going as low as 17.9% and as high as 25.6% (over 20% is considered above-average).
I do not know why this variation has existed. Perhaps he doesn’t have sound, repeatable mechanics. Maybe he relies too much on natural hand-eye coordination. Players like this tend to get into funks that they can’t get out of, and are forced to “figure out their swings”. These same players can also get “locked-in” at the plate and go on extended hot streaks. These grooves can persist over longer periods of time than typical, random ups and downs experience by most good hitters. His split stats do show a lot of fluctuation from month to month, but it’s unsafe to draw conclusions from this. The data doesn't give strong indications, so I'll just assume it's an everything cocktail.
However, there are sound reasons to expect KJ to have a solid 2012. He has a very good eye at the plate (10.7% career walk rate) and good power, especially for a second baseman (.181 career ISO--.150 is league average). Typically, those two traits will allow you to sustain success at the major league level. Yes he’s had a lot of volatility in his performances, and he strikes out a lot, but the overall picture is a positive one. With league average defense and base running, at a position that is typically not a good one for hitters, it isn’t hard to see how he could add significant value to the team by merely approaching his career numbers.
After coming to the Jays, KJ started squaring up the ball again (27.7% line drive rate), started mashing fastballs again, and was generally good-to-go against all pitches other than the slider (which is a tough pitch for many players). The
Here is his consensus outlook for 2012:
584 Plate Appearances
128 Hits
29 Doubles
5 Triples
19 Home Runs
64 Walks/Hit by Pitch
139 Strikeouts
13 Stolen Bases
.247/.328/.434 AVG/OBP/SLG
.335 wOBA
The Jays got basically 0 WAR in 2011 from the 2B spot, so worst-case scenario KJ gives them what they were already getting, and they let him walk when his contract expires. But he’s projected to be worth about 3-WAR. If that’s the case, the team will probably try to extend his contract, as they don’t have an in-house option at 2B to replace him anytime soon.
The Jays decision will depend on which KJ shows up this year.
what's a baseball?
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