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Toronto, Ontario, Canada
I'm an avid sports and movie fan, and I love statistical analysis of almost anything.

Friday, March 23, 2012

5 Jays Profiles: J.P. Arencibia

Today is day 1 of my 5 Blue Jays profiles.

I already named the 5 players that I chose.

Without further ado, here is player 1:

J.P. Arencibia (JPA)
Born: Sunday, January 5, 1986
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 210lbs.
Position: C
2012 MLB Season: 3rd, 2nd full
College: University of Tennessee
Draft: 2007, 21st overall

In 2011 JPA was technically a rookie; despite having played 11 games as a Jay in 2010 (his first game being one of the most memorable debuts in MLB history).

As a first round pick, expectations have been high for JPA. Obviously first-round picks don’t always pan out, and 21st overall doesn’t bring with it the demands of being 1st, but it’s reasonable to expect such a player to become a full-time component of the major league ball club. So far, JPA has not disappointed. Moving forward, few players on the Jays’ 2012 opening day roster will be as crucial to the team’s progress.

Even ignoring his ridiculous first game, JPA has been a major league-worthy hitter, albeit one with less-than-discerning eyes at the plate and big, powerful swings that result in a lot of missed attempts at the ball. When he does make contact, though, he can hit it a long way.

Throughout his minor league career, JPA managed to hit for power across all levels, with 83 total homers in 409 games. His power improved as he advanced, and in AAA he hit 53 HR in 220 games, including 32 in his final season (104 games). The batting eye, however, took a while to develop. In his final season in AAA he managed to walk 8.3% of the time, which is roughly league average, but prior to that he had never walked more than 5.6% of the time.

In the majors, the power stroke was put on display too, and his walk rate was a manageable 7.4% (6.7% if you exclude intentional walks, which you should). That would typically put you in the roughly the 100th spot, overall. It can be seen that JPA swung at only 1/3 of the pitches he saw outside of the zone (good for top 50 or so), and only half of all pitches (about 40th).

So how does a guy with a decent eye at the plate and plus power have a .219 batting average in 486 plate appearances? One, he swings and misses a LOT, and two, he had some bad luck on the balls he did put into play (low BABIP).

JPA missed the ball entirely 13.1% of the time that he swung the bat. That’s very bad (bottom 25 in the league almost any year). Even though he was appropriately able to choose which pitches to take a crack at, his ability to actually hit them is subpar. As a result, he struck out a whopping 133 times in only 443 at bats. That strikeout rate is among the worst in the majors. It’s “ok” to swing and miss a lot when you have a great eye and you can demolish the ball the times you do make contact. Hitters who enjoyed success at the plate with that approach last season include Mark Reynolds, Mike Stanton, Ryan Howard, Josh Willingham, and Carlos Pena. These guys hit a lot of fly balls, and usually have low BABIPs (thanks as well to being slow runners), but they also hit a lot of home runs. Additionally, they all have better walk rates than JPA. Batting eye can improve with time, so all is not lost, but JPA may also want to consider tweaking his swing a little. The all-or-nothing approach has failed many batters who didn’t couple their attack with a discerning eye, especially when you can’t beat the throw to first.

JPA is, by all accounts, a slow runner. This is typical of a catcher, so there really isn’t much room for improvement in that area. However, his success on balls in play was not helped by lady luck, either. According to an xBABIP calculator, JPA profiles as more of a .299 BABIP guy than merely a .255 BABIP guy (which was his outcome last season). Catchers tend to underperform their expected BABIP because they just can’t capitalize on ground balls the way most position players can, thanks to squatting for most of their lives. If you split the difference though, and bring his BABIP up to the .275 range, JPA’s batting line would get a nice boost, as would his overall value.

Of course, as a catcher, a great deal of his value is derived from the fact that so few catchers can hit worth a lick. I mentioned non-catcher position players previously, but ignored the fact that those guys don’t have to assuming the crouch position 100+ times per game, 100+ games per season. The issue, though, is that whatever value JPA gains with his bat by virtue of playing catcher on the defensive side of the ball, he gives back by being the worst defensive player at his position in MLB. Whether you’re looking at defensive runs saved, scouting reports, fans opinions, ultimate zone rating, or basic stats, JPA simply does not grade out anything close to being mediocre. Even assuming strong regression towards to league average, and enough improvement to avoid being mentioned as potentially the worst backstop in the show, he stands to cost the team something like 5 runs (0.5 wins) next season behind the plate.

So how does he measure up overall? Well, last season he was worth ~1 win above replacement (WAR) depending on which site you go to, and that puts him something like 30th overall for catchers. Granted he was a 25-year-old rookie, but that’s not ideal. Guys who were ahead of him include certified non-studs like Kelly Shoppach and Rod Barajas. If JPA wants to avoid losing his job to Travis D’Arnaud as soon as this season, he’s going to need to pull up his walks socks and cut down on the whiffs.

How can he improve? He mashes fastballs, but the cutter and the change-up are really giving him a hard time. I’m not a hitting coach, and those are generally difficult pitches to hit, but I’m sure that, looking at film, the Jays’ coaching staff is able to see weaknesses in his swing that are being exploited.

I honestly believe that experience and age will make the biggest difference, though. And better luck. Based on an average of the 6 projection systems available via fangraphs.com, JPA’s 2012 line should improve slightly:

502 plate appearances
.231/.290/.447 triple slash (AVG/OBP/SLG)
23 home runs
wOBA .321

I’m slightly more optimistic. I believe that his defense will improve with better coaching and more experience behind the plate in MLB games. I believe his strikeout rate will drop to about 25% and his walk rate will come up to about 7.5%. As long as he maintains his power, and slightly improves across the board in all other areas, I see JPA being something like a league average catcher in 2012.

Considering the fact that he’s pre-arbitration, only 26 years old and makes less than a million bucks a year, that's pretty good. A 1-WAR improvement from one year to the next is a big deal. 

Any 21st overall pick who gives a ball club roughly 3 WAR by age 26 would generally be considered ok. If he can continue to improve noticeably over the next two seasons, his trade value will peak in time for Travis D’Arnaud to take over full-time, and in that case JPA could be considered a draft success.

Short and long term, he is very important to the Toronto Blue Jays.






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