Will Luke Schenn get Better?

According to very strong statistical research from Behind The Net, "in the aggregate, players reach their peak performance level at age 22 and hold it for several years." Generally speaking, a top prospect's peak NHL production is about 75% of what he did in major junior hockey at the age of 17. That would project Luke Schenn to be about a 25-point NHL defender in a full season. Obviously the Leafs weren't counting on Schenn to be an offensive threat, and that's a good thing because he isn't. What they were hoping for was for him to become a shut-down NHL defense-man. He struggled as a nineteen-year-old rookie, not surprisingly, but seemed to take a step forward in year 2. Year 3 saw a slight regression, which was disappointing, and now in year 4 he appears to be back to where he was in year 2. Now that Schenn is 22, is it wise to assume that he'll continue to develop significantly?

This shows PPG production leveling off around age 22, as offense is as dependent on physical skill as it is on "knowledge of the game." At 22 you're faster, healthier, more agile, and peaking in strength. For a player looking to be a shutdown defender, however, productivity can increase beyond age 22 because there's less reliance on physical skill and more reliance on awareness and approach. However, significant headway needs to have been made already. At age 22, Scott Stevens was already a star. At 23, Chris Pronger was an NHL-elite +47. Shea Weber didn't enjoy his breakout year until 23, and Duncan Keith was 24. 

Here's the problem with Schenn--he's 22, and he's barely an average NHL defender. In just under 15 minutes per game, according to Behind the Net's advanced stats, the Leafs don't like playing Schenn against the other team's top players. Additionally, he doesn't grade out well against them. Corsi is a stat that measures the number of shots directed towards the net while a player is on the ice. When Schenn is on the ice, the Leafs are in the negative column. When he's not on the ice, they're in the positive column. That isn't good. He isn't "shutting down" anyone. Obviously that doesn't show quality of shots, and his +/- is positive, but it's highly unlikely it stays there long-term with more shots being directed as the Leafs' net while he's out there.

Schenn developing into an elite NHL defender, based on where he is at this age and the path he's taken to get here, is looking less and less plausible. He has improved since he entered the league, but he hasn't progressed enough. Barring a big, sudden step forward, a career as a number 5 or 6 defender is where he's headed, and it's unwise to expect anything more than that. That isn't a bad thing, and most draftees, even those taken 7th overall, would be thrilled if they were told that they'd be every-day NHLers making millions of dollars. However, he could be more valuable to Toronto as a trade piece.

Nearing the trade deadline, if a team wants to give the Leafs an under-29-years-old top-line forward, whose contract is reasonable, in exchange for Schenn, they should take it.