What Should the Jays Opening Day Lineup Look Like?

Spring training is starting, and the Jays are heading into an awkward phase. The re-build is still in progress, but now it's time for them to take the next step towards legitimate contention. I'm not saying they'll contend in 2012, but they should expect to deservedly finish above .500. Last year, according to Pythagorean wins calculation, the Jays "should" have won 79 games. Second and third order wins calculations were even less favourable.

Anyway, the Jays are in the position now where they should be fielding their best lineup. Travis Snider should only be given a roster spot if he shows very good plate discipline and drastically reduces his swings-and-misses in training camp. Otherwise, I'd send him back to the minors and recall him only if/when he manages prolonged, luck-free success in AAA.

Some projections are out (from people who project), and I could just use those, but I've decided to use my own, instead. Barring the unforeseen, here would be my Toronto Blue Jays defensive set-up and batting order on opening day 2012 (my wOBA predictions are in parentheses):

C: J.P. Arencibia
1B: Adam Lind
2B: Kelly Johnson
3B: Brett Lawrie
SS: Yunel Escobar
RF: Jose Bautista
CF: Colby Rasmus
LF: Eric Thames if there's a RHP, Rajai Davis if it's a LHP

Vs. a RHP
1) Yunel Escobar (.342)
2) Kelly Johnson (.350)
3) Jose Bautista (.412)
4) Edwin Encarnacion (.354)
5) Brett Lawrie (.350)
6) Eric Thames (.351 vs.RHP)
7) Adam Lind (.342)
8) Colby Rasmus (.322)
9) J.P. Arencibia (.316)

Vs. a LHP

1) Yunel Escobar (.342)
2) Kelly Johnson (.350)
3) Jose Bautista (.412)
4) Edwin Encarnacion (.354)
5) Brett Lawrie (.350)
6) Adam Lind (.342)
7) Colby Rasmus (.322)
8) J.P. Arencibia (.316)
9) Rajai Davis (.336 vs. LHP)

The reason for starting Davis vs. LHP is he's a right-handed bat with a career wOBA of .336 (above-average) vs. LHP, but only .292 vs. RHP (bad). Eric Thames is a left-handed bat and had, albeit in a limited sample size, a wOBA of .351 vs. RHP (good) last year, and .273 vs. LHP (terrible). That's actually a pretty appealing platoon split.

I've said before that David Cooper should become the Jay's starting 1B. I would put him on the team as the back-up 1B/DH, and I would make sure that he got a solid number of plate appearances, but I'm not ready to start off the season with him in a full-time role. If I were the manager, I'd give him enough opportunity to prove that he's better than Lind. I really hope that Lind bounces back, but it's been two full seasons of poor production from him. My estimate of a .342 wOBA is quite rosy, because I'm going against my nature and trying to be more optimistic these days.

I'm not ready to comment on the Jays' starting pitching rotation just yet. I was really hoping that they'd sign Edwin Jackson to a 3-year, $25-30million deal, but obviously that didn't happen. I'll wait until spring training is basically done before I pass judgement, and give Kyle Drabek time to prove that he's learned to pitch and Brett Cecil a chance to regain his 2010 form.