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Toronto, Ontario, Canada
I'm an avid sports and movie fan, and I love statistical analysis of almost anything.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

These are the Guys the Leafs Should Target

I am not tapped into the NHL. I have no sources or inside information. What I do know is that teams in the middle of losing seasons with a poor outlook moving forward like to move top-notch talent with big salaries in exchange for young unrealized talent, prospects, and/or draft picks. There are also teams with no shot at re-signing players who will look to move them.

Here is a small list of player that I believe will/should be available towards the trade deadline that the Leafs will/should consider (I'm sure some entire rosters are available, but it doesn't mean I'd want to give up Luke Schenn for 3 months of Teemu Selanne):

Vincent Lecavalier $7,727,273 for 6 more seasons
Derek Roy $4,000,000 for 1 more season
Eric Staal $8,250,000 for 4 more seasons
Zach Parise $6,000,000 and done after this year
Ryan Getzlaf $5,325,000 for 1 more season
Corey Perry $5,325,000 for 1 more season
Bobby Ryan $5,100,000 for 3 more seasons
Rick Nash $7,800,000 for 6 more seasons
Jeff Carter $5,272,727 for 10 more seasons

Let's evaluate:
Vincent Lecavalier should not be accepted in any deal unless Tampa Bay agrees to eat half that contract, especially if they want players/picks in return.
Zach Parise is a stud, but he's a winger and the Leafs need a centre. He's not signed for next year and he'll want a LOT of money and years. New Jersey will only move him if they can't re-sign him, and they'll want an arm and a leg for him. The Leafs should avoid getting roped into that one.
Rick Nash is also owed a boatload of money for a long time, and is a winger. As talented as he is, I don't think he's ever played up to it over a full year. That's a lot of money for less than a point-per-game from an all-offense guy. I'd steer clear.
Jeff Carter is intriguing because he plays centre, his per year salary isn't crazy, and he looked like an elite player until this season. However 10 years is a massive commitment. If dealing for him, I wouldn't give up the farm, which is probably what Columbus is asking in exchange. I'm just not convinced.
The Bobby Ryan rumours were floating around before, and he's a very good player, but he's a winger and not a play-maker-first kind of guy. However he'll be 25 in March and is signed medium-term to an affordable contract. I'd seriously consider pulling the trigger for him.
Corey Perry is a better version of Ryan, but he's 2 years older and under contract for 2 years fewer. He's going to want a big deal after next season, and he'll get it from someone. Dollar-for-dollar, I prefer Ryan.
His teammate Ryan Getzlaf is a different story. I'd move Schenn/Kadri and a pick for him without hesitation. He's the same age as Perry and on the same contract, but he's a centre and the Leafs are desperate for one. He's having a tough year after two injury-shortened seasons, but he's worth the risk in my opinion.
Eric Staal is a year older and signed for 3 more years and $3million more per, plus I don't think he's as good as Getzlaf. I wouldn't give up much to take on that contract.
An interesting player is Derek Roy. He was hurt last year and has under produced this year, but otherwise he's been healthy and good for about five years. He'll be 29 going into the final year of his contract, and would probably re-sign for a reasonable amount unless he goes bananas in his final year, but then there's no pressure to bring him back. I would take a long look at him, especially because I think he would be far cheaper than the aforementioned players, but he may be too small for Burke's taste.
The NHL has a pretty strict salary cap, and the Leafs are close to it, but you only have to pay the remainder of the 2011/2012 salary and the Leafs have something like $622,000 of room (according to capgeek.com). I think they could make a deal work for pretty much any player. Moving forward, the Leafs have something like $11.5million in cap space for next year with 17 (out of 25 roster spots) players signed. That doesn't give them a ton of room to maneuver, but again I'm sure they could figure something out. The NHL salary cap is complicated, and I don't know it that well, so I'm mostly assuming they could make it work.
If Brian Burke doesn't do anything, I wouldn't consider that a failure. He doesn't have to do a deal, and he shouldn't feel obligated to appease a fan base itching for one, but Burke likes to deal, and he probably will.

2 comments:

  1. Beastman agree with the assessments on Carter and Rick Nash. I think they've proven that they'll play well with another superstar but can't generate a whole lot on their own. Complimentary stars rather than stars. Look for Burke the jerk to look to Anaheim for deal making. He's got a long history with the club and has already transacted with them. Think Jason Blake, beauchamin, toskola. And I think he's the type to be happy with either of anaheims top three. Getzlaf in a leafs jersey would give this city so much excitement. Of the three I think he's the best although some would understandably argue perry. They are the elite crash and bangers which Burke loves. Depending on picks leads don't really have a whole lot to part with. Lupul but.... Came from Anaheim.

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  2. Our only hope for trades is that Anaheim gets a new crop of good players we can pillage once again. Seems it is the only team Burkie is capable of making a deal with.

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