At the all-star break the Toronto Maple Leafs are 7th in the conference with 55 points, tied with Florida and New Jersey, who have each played 48 games to Toronto's 49. Unlike those other two, the Leafs have scored more goals than they have given up, and have 22 regulation-plus-overtime wins, whereas Florida has 19 and New Jersey has 18. In fact, New Jersey is 8-2 in shootouts, and Toronto is 3-2. The shootout has always benefited New Jersey, though, as they haven't had a losing record in shootouts any of the last 5 season (having Martin Brodeur in net helps), but 80% success is an unsustainable rate. Given that Florida has "come out of nowhere" to insert themselves in the race this season, and the stats and pedigree of the teams below them in the standings, it seems highly likely that Toronto will make the playoffs for the first time since the lockout.
The rumour is that the Leafs' GM, Brian Burke, is looking to make a move before the trade deadline to improve the team. That's never a bad thing, but the term "improve" needs to be defined. Is he trying to improve the team's chances of making the playoffs? Is he trying to improve the team's chances of advancing beyond the first round? Is he trying to improve the team's chances of winning the Stanley Cup? Or is he merely trying to improve the team long-term, without hurting their chances at making the playoffs this season?
I don't have access to the Leafs' revenue streams and projections, but I feel confident saying that each home playoff game nets ownership millions of dollars. The Leafs should not do anything to hurt their chances at making the playoffs this year, though (outside of Columbus offering their first round pick for the next 3 seasons in exchange for Tyler Bozak).
But which route makes the most sense for the Leafs? Obviously the deals that are offered will influence the decision, but all else being equal, this situation can be logically dissected.
Assuming the Leafs' chances of making the playoffs are 80%, then no deal should be made to increase their chances in 2012 that will decrease their Stanley Cup chances moving forward. Also keep in mind that Boston is the likely reward for finishing 8th, and that almost certainly means a first-round exit and a mere 2 home games for ownership to profit off of.
The Leafs' chances of finishing 7th probably stand at about 50%. That means they'd probably face the Rangers (I know they're in first now, but look at Boston's goal differential, depth, goal-tending, and pedigree...). The Rangers are a very good team playing great hockey. They're as good on the road as they are at home, they've been consistently good all season, they have a top-flight goalie in Henrik Lundqvist, and some grade A players. They look like a formidable playoff opponent, and one that would probably provide the same outcome as Boston. Given all that, it makes little sense to do a deal that would make the Leafs the overwhelming favourite to finish 7th, if that deal will negatively affect the Leafs' prospects moving forward.
Here's where it gets interesting--Ottawa is in 6th, with 5 more points in 3 more games than Toronto. Ottawa has many good players, but they give up more goals than they score (and they give up a LOT of goals), they've lost 3 straight entering the all-star break, their star players are old or injury prone (Alfredsson, Spezza), and they haven't been a good team for a few years. Toronto, New Jersey, Ottawa, and Florida probably believe they could finish 6th. I sincerely believe Toronto and New Jersey are the two best teams of that lot, and that Toronto is slightly better. I'd put the odds of finishing 6th at this: Toronto 35%, New Jersey 30%, Ottawa 20%, Florida 15%. Finish 6th, and you almost definitely face Washington. Washington's playoff record is bad for reasons that I won't go into here, but they're beatable. Toronto's chances of seeing more than 2 home games go up dramatically, and Toronto's chances of advancing to the second round exist realistically, whereas against Boston/NY they effectively do not. If they Leafs want to get to 6th with a chance of beating Washington, they'll need to make a significant trade, and I agree that they should.
I know, as a Leaf fan, all too well about the perils of mortgaging the future to take a shot in the present. I also know I'm not talking about taking a shot at the Stanley Cup. Toronto still needs a goalie that can carry them in the playoffs and bail them out when they have lapses (which young, fast teams will). They still need a coach who will instill some discipline and a penalty kill. And they need time to develop as a team.
I also know that there are trade options out there for good, young players who could help now, and in the future, if a team is willing to pony up a couple of prospects and/or a draft pick. I hope I get comment(s) from reader(s), because I'd love to hear what other people think about this (rational people), but it is my analysis that the Leafs should be looking to add a top-line, all-star caliber forward (ideally a centre) in exchange for Schenn and/or Kadri and/or a draft pick. I don't want to get sidetracked by discussing Schenn/Kadri, so I'll just say I'm not convinced that either has a future as anything other than an average NHL player.
Many Leaf fans are hard on the Kessel trade, but Burke couldn't have known that the Leafs would finish at the bottom, that Boston would get Seguin, and that Boston's team would blossom so well that Seguin could play his natural game and be able to adjust gradually without hurting the team. However, Kessel is still a better player now than Seguin is (my opinion), and anytime you have a chance to add a young superstar in the making in exchange for an unsure draft choice, I believe you should do it.
If Toronto wants to ensure a playoff spot and make themselves the overwhelming favourite to finish 6th and set up a first round date with Washington, and they can do it by adding a forward (preferably a centre) who will help future playoff (and hopefully Stanley Cup) runs, then I will be the first to applaud Brian Burke.
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