Since coming into the majors as a 21-year-old in 2001, Albert Pujols has asserted himself as the best bat in the game. From 2001-2009, he recorded 75.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). He could have retired at 30 and been a first-ballot hall of famer. His lowest WAR total was as a 22-year-old in 2002, and it was 6.0. He promptly followed that up with a ridiculous 10.1, and then didn’t record a WAR total below 8.4 for the next 6 seasons. Basically, he was the best player in the league every year for 7 years. I really cannot stress enough how remarkable that is.
If you believe birth certificates, Jose Bautista and Albert Pujols are born in the same year. Bautista, however, did not break into the league until he was 24. That year, he proved to be worse than almost every MLB player, and recorded negative WAR (-0.9). He followed that up with 2 more negative WAR years, but the Pirates saw enough in him to keep rolling him out there. In 2007, he finally had a positive season, putting up 1.0 WAR, or roughly half what an average MLB player puts up (on the terrible Pirates team, he got 614 plate appearances, because they had no-one better). Coming into the 2009 season, that 1.0 WAR year was his best by far, and one of only two seasons in which he had positively contributed to a MLB team.
In 2008, the Blue Jays took a flyer on him and acquired him from Pittsburgh for a player to be named later (Robinson Diaz). I have no idea why, but they did, and in 2009 Bautista played like an above-average player. He fielded, ran the bases, and hit at slightly above average rates, and in only 113 games and 404 plate appearances managed to put up 2.1 WAR (2.0 is typically league average for a full season, or 600 plate appearances). Had he played 162 games his WAR would’ve been ~3.0, which is good.
In 2010 everything changed. There were signs of growth, as he had finished 2009 very strongly, but nobody could have forecasted what would happen next. Jose Bautista, thanks to a already good eye at the plate (walk rate above 10%) and a new approach to swinging the bat (harder, more upper-cut), managed to bash 54 home runs on route to a .422 wOBA (4th best in baseball after Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto, and Miguel Cabrera) and a 6.8 WAR (despite his fielding taking a dive into the negative value realm according to Ultimate Zone Rate (UZR)), which was good for 8th best in baseball. The Blue Jays rewarded him with $64million over 5 years ($8million, then 4 years of $14million per). That will take him to the year in which he will turn 35. Bautista rewarded the Jays with a monster 2011 where he had the best wOBA in baseball (.441) and was 3rd in WAR (8.3). 8.3 WAR in 2011 was "worth" about $35million. Bautista “earned” over half his contract in one season. Without him, the Jays probably win about 75 games, not 81.
Back to Pujols. 2010 wasn’t a bad season by any stretch for Albert, but his WAR did dip below 8 for the first time in 8 years, and he finished at 7.5. 2011, however, was not a good season for him. His war was a merely-very-good 5.1 (all-star caliber). He was still a plus fielder, but because he played 1B his positional value was still negative (a 1B has to be Godly in the field to make up for playing the easiest non-DH position on the diamond). Also, for only the second time in his career, he was a negative base runner (not surprising, since he’s getting bigger and is at least 31 years of age). The result? Pujols got a 10-year, $240million guaranteed contract from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. To “earn” that, he’ll have to put up about 40 WAR over the life of the contract. That means he has to be, on average, a borderline all-star for 10 years.
Moving forward, it’s ridiculous to compare the contracts. I don’t think anyone would argue that Albert Pujols at 10 years and $240million is more valuable than Jose Bautista is at 4 years (remaining) and $56million (remaining).
Forecasting nearly anything outside of where the sun will rise is difficult (just ask weather men and stock analysts). Forecasting how an all-time-great baseball player will age is no exception, and forecasting how an out-of-nowhere-mega-stud will age is harder still. I think it’s safe to say that outside of the steroid era, relying on all-star production from a big slugger past the age of 35 is irrational. Albert Pujols isn’t just any slugger, but neither is (was) Alex Rodriguez, and his WAR hasn’t been above 5 since he was 33 (4.3, 3.8, 4.2 last 3 seasons). That’s partly due to injuries, and partly due to decreased output when healthy. Basically, that’s due to aging.
Throw in the fact that Pujols is making the transitions to a new league/stadium for the first time ever, and the supposed weight of his new contract on his shoulders, and it will be very interesting to see which way his WAR goes. Also consider that Pujols' positional value can’t improve. He is stuck at 1B or DH, where they already have Trumbo/Morales. Bautista can probably survive in RF for a few more years while spelling 3B once in a while. He could probably learn 1B in an off season too, if he had to (this list of players who have is long and undistinguished).
I know the Angels are hoping for a strong rebound, and I’m pretty sure that the Jays would be fine if Bautista put up 2/3 of his average 2010/11 production. In a game of tell-the-truth-or-die, I’d be shocked if over 75% of baseball didn’t say they’d rather have Bautista than Pujols right now, all things considered.
If Bautista ages like A-Rod in the next 4 years, he’ll have out-earned his contract by an enormous margin. If Pujols does he’ll be overpaid. Then he’ll still have another 6 years left.
This means WAR!
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