How Can the Leafs Make the Playoffs?

As of this post, the Toronto Maple Leafs have the 16th best Point Percentage (P% - the percentage of available points your team has earned) in the NHL, and are 9th in their conference. Obviously, at the end of the 82 game schedule, points are all that matter, however, when trying to predict who will and will not make the playoffs (we're about 47 games into the regular season), P% is not the only effective metric. The Leafs will have a tough time securing a spot, but if they're going to, they have one glaring area in need of improvement.


Toronto is 12th in goal differential. Not surprisingly, Boston is first (by an enormous margin), followed by other bona fide cup contenders Detroit, Vancouver, and the New York Rangers. Oddly enough, there are only 12 teams in the NHL with more goals for than against. Toronto is there by virtue of scoring a lot of goals.  


The Leafs are also 12th in 5-on-5 goal differential, and an impressive 4th in power play %. However, they've only been on the power play the 13th most in the NHL. If the Leafs can figure out a way to increase the number of penalties called against them, they'll almost certainly move up in the standings, but I have no idea how to convince NHL referees that the Leafs' young speedsters are as deserving of calls as more established stars (I don't want to turn this post into a rant about biased refereeing in the NHL, but I do believe it exists, as it does in any other sport).


Here is the real issue: Toronto is dead last in the league in penalty kill percentage, and has spent the 12th most time short-handed (that number would be higher if they had killed more penalties in their entirety). This is easily the most negative stat facing the team, but also the easiest area for them to improve. The Leafs may be young, but they're also very fast and have a few good, physical defensemen. They "should" be much better at killing penalties. Far be it for me to judge the decision-making process of the team, but this falls squarely on the shoulders of the coaching staff. 
Watching Leaf games, it's obvious that their passive approach to killing penalties isn't working. The Leafs are 6th in blocked shots in the NHL, and they are 24th in save percentage; they're about league average at limiting the number of shots at their net that are converted into goals. The problem is that they allow a LOT of shots at their net, particularly on the power play, when forwards can set up in front of the goalie for screens and rebounds. 


In order to get a good shot off, you need time. The Leafs need to reduce the amount of time opponents have with the puck to make plays and take shots. A passive approach to killing penalties requires the team to cut off passing lanes and clear the front of the net of opponents. However, they aren't any good at that. So why not get more aggressive? Why not use their most obvious skill, speed? Give the other team less time to make decisions, to set up in front of the net, and to take direct shots at the goal. Don't let them set up. Attack the puck carrier aggressively.


When your penalty kill is as bad as the Leafs, status quo is unacceptable. If the Leafs could merely move to the middle-of-the-pack in the NHL in penalty killing, they'd be more than a play-off team, they'd be legitimate contenders.