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Toronto, Ontario, Canada
I'm an avid sports and movie fan, and I love statistical analysis of almost anything.

Friday, August 3, 2012

No Bat? No Problem


For positional players in baseball, their abilities at the plate garner the most attention (obviously). However, there are clearly two other components of the game that are important—fielding and base running.

What got me thinking about this was the Jays’ latest prospect call-up, Anthony Gose. I wanted to draw attention to the fact that a player doesn’t have hit 30 homers to be valuable—if he plays good defense at a premium position (CF, SS, 2B, 3B, C) and can run well, all he has to do is be passable at the plate. 

In the field, a player can add value with his legs (running down fly balls), with his arm (robbing speedy runners of ground ball singles), and with their smarts (being in position prior to contact so that you don’t have to rely on your legs or arm as much to beat the runner at first, or taking the most efficient route to a fly ball or reacting quickly to the ball off the bat so that you don’t have to rely on your legs as much).

On the base paths, speed reigns supreme, but merely being fast doesn’t guarantee that you’ll be an effective base-stealer. Nor does being an effective base-stealer promise that you’re a good base runner—intelligence and instinct and knowing your opponents’ strengths and weaknesses are also important.

I’d like to take this opportunity to acknowledge a few of my favourite non-bat players in baseball. These are guys who are not known for hitting home runs, but who manage to bring a lot of value with their defense and their base-running. Because it takes a while to figure out whether a player is a good fielder or base runner (far fewer opportunities to judge a player), I’ve chosen to use all of 2010, 2011, and what we’ve seen so far in 2012 to make my assessments. I’m also using scouting reports alongside statistical research, because it’s difficult to quantify base running and especially difficult to quantify fielding prowess.

Finally, these guys have to bring it with the glove AND on the base paths, not merely one or the other. Mind you, a lot of defensive ability has to do with speed and foot work and smarts, which typically translates well into base running, and vice versa.

Anyway, here you go:

1)       Brett Gardner: Gardner isn’t a bad hitter. In fact, in 318 games (GP) and 1,191 plate appearances (PA) he has graded out as something like 12% better than average over the last 3 seasons. However, the bulk of his value comes from his outstanding base running (BSR) and defense (FLD). His FLD is outstanding by any measure, whether it is ultimate zone rating (UZR), defensive runs saves (DRS), or old-fashioned scouting. In fact, in 2010/2011, there’s a good argument to be made that he was the best fielder of his position in baseball. Gardner’s speed on the base paths is also among the best in the league. He’s successfully stolen 137 bases (98 in his last 318 games) at a rate of 83%, which is just awesome. Even if he couldn’t hit, this guy would make any team better just with his glove-work and running. Assuming he can recover from his current (serious) elbow injury, the Yankees should enjoy a few more years of cheap, high-level service from the soon-to-be 29 year old. He’s salary-arbitration eligible heading into the offseason, but that injury is sure to depress what would’ve otherwise been a significant payday.
2)       Alexie Ramirez: Ramirez was supposed to be a better hitter, but alas that has not been the case. His 89wRC+ since 2009 is well below average, but for a short stop (SS) with cannon for an arm, excellent speed, and good instincts, that’s fine. In fact, those skills have made him a highly productive player for the White Sox, and because they’re often overlooked in contract negotiations, the team is only paying him $5,000,000 in 2012. If he created all that value with his bat but fielded poorly (like so many “star” SS in the league today), it’s safe to say he’d be making MUCH more. So, while he’s “worth” something like $15million per season, the White Sox have him under contract for 3 more years after this one at a total of $26.5million. Not bad for a guy who has been worthy of an all-star spot each of the past 2 seasons. If his bat rebounds to 2010/2011 levels, he’ll be an absolute steal.
3)       Elvis Andrus: Andrus is yet another sub-par-bat SS who provides a ton of value in the less than obvious areas of fielding and base running. However, he’s somewhat different from Alexei Ramirez in that he brings most of his value stealing bases and scoring from first on doubles. That’s not to say that he’s not a very good defender, because he is that, too. But Elvis has graded out as something like the best base runner in the league over the last 3 seasons. His stolen base totals and success rates are obviously good, but it’s his running on balls put into play by teammates where he really shines (he’s a wiz at taking the extra base). And he’s good everywhere in the field, too, with a powerful arm and fantastic instincts supplementing his world-class speed. With an improving bat (nearly league-average so far this season), the ~$12million owed to him over the next two plus seasons is a ridiculous bargain for this 23-year-old kid.

There are a lot of other guys who qualify to be mentioned, but the above 3 happen to be my favourites. I suppose I could’ve left Gardner off because he basically hasn’t played this season, and he has a plus bat, but I really wanted to highlight just how good he’s been since 2010.

Here are the honourable mentions that I didn’t have the time/desire to write about:

1)       Brendan Ryan
2)       Placido Polanco
3)       Gerardo Parra
4)       Mark Ellis
5)       Darwin Barney
6)       J.J. Hardy
7)       Nyjer Morgan
8)       Cameron Maybin
9)       Sean Rodriguez
10)   Juan Pierre
11)   Yunel Escobar
12)   Omar Infante
13)   Orlando Hudson
14)   Cliff Pennington
15)   Jamey Carroll
16)   Gordon Beckham
17)   Alcides Escobar

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