Leafs Draft Morgan Reilly 5th Overall

In a post I made on April 10, 2012, I suggested that the Leafs should draft Alex Galchenyuk. Unfortunately, he was taken 3rd overall by the Montreal Canadians. However, according to Brian Burke, the Leafs were taking Morgan Reilly no matter where they sat in the draft, provided he was available. While I find that hard to believe (I'm assuming Burke has seen Nail Yakupov play hockey), it's such a strong statement that it can't be entirely lip service.

Morgan Reilly turned 18 on March 9th of this year. He's listed at 6 feet tall and 190 lbs. on NHL.com, and last season tore his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) a mere 18 games into the season. In those 18 games, he managed 3 goals and 15 assists for the Moose Jay Warriors of the Western Hockey League (WHL). Upon returning, in the playoffs, he had 3 assists in 5 games.

I'm not going to give a full history of his playing experience, nor am I going to try to assess how good this kid might be when all is said and done, because he's just that -- a kid. It's important for Leafs' fans and Leafs' management and Leafs' coaching staff to keep this in mind in the coming months/years. Traded away after 4 disappointing seasons, former Leaf Luke Schenn is a cautionary tale of why rushing the development of a young player, especially a defenseman, is unwise.

Reilly's age is a positive factor in at least area, though--his torn ACL. At 18, he is far more likely to be able to bounce back fully from the injury. Were he 28, it would probably be a different story (although nothing with injuries is certain, and not every torn ACL is the same). Also, he was a serviceable defenseman in the OHL at the age of 16, which is further indication that he has significant natural talent and ability (Reilly was successful as a 15-year-old at Notre Dame in Saskatchewan, so he's always been good).

But again, I cannot stress enough how significant a factor his age is. He just turned 18. A lot can change, or more pointedly fail to change, at that age. While his strong early performance is likely indicative of future success, it doesn't guarantee it. He still needs help developing into an NHL player. He'll need to continue to develop his game against better talent, but that should not be NHL talent, at least not immediately.

Perhaps it would be best to let him play another full season in the WHL, although he might simply develop some bad habits playing in a league he has outgrown (or will quickly outgrow). If that's the case, if he has nothing futher to gain, then a move to the AHL makes sense. Whenever he does join the Marlies, the Leafs will need to be cautious with how much time he gets against the top players in the league. The AHL might be a big step down from the NHL, but it's a big step up from the WHL, and the top forwards will almost certainly give Reilly a hard time.

These decisions should be based on what the Leafs have seen out of him and what they see out of him at camp. Even if he shines in camp, then send him to the AHL. Training camp alone is not a good enough sample, in my opinion, to warrant hastening a player's development, unless that player has already proven to be a world-class talent (a la Sidney Crosby). Early on in his AHL career, I wouldn't risk giving him exposure to the best forwards in the league until he shows that he can handle the speed and harder hitting of the older, faster, stronger players. Once he is mentally and physically capable, then he can start to see extensive minutes regardless of the opponent. Only when it has been proven that he has nothing more to gain from that level should be be allowed to see time in the NHL. And again, in the NHL as in the AHL, in the beginning he should not be facing the other team's top lines until he earns that right beyond question.

For a defenseman not legally old enough to drink in the province that he'll soon call home, it is imperative that all parties involved allow him to grow into a player who can lead the team to a Stanley Cup.