7 Jays AAA Prospects to Watch

Those are 7 Toronto Blue Jays hitting prospects at the AAA level. All 7 players are 25 years old or younger (the age posted is the age they’ll be this calendar year).

Some things to take note of:

1)       The Pacific Coast League (PCL), where these guys play, massively favours hitters. wRC+ is the best metric to look at. 100 is average, anything over that is good, and anything under that is bad. David Cooper’s 151 wRC+ means he is hitting 1.51 times, or 51%, better than the average AAA hitter.

2)       By the age of 25, a player can barely be called a prospect, and he should be mashing minor league pitching.

3)       MLB league average BABIP is in the .290 range. In the PCL, it’s around.330, and anything over .350 should be looked at skeptically, as it’s not likely skill-driven. So when you see Yan Gomes has a 166 wRC+, keep in mind that his .440 BABIP almost certainly denotes a significant amount of his production has come from good luck and moving forward, his luck will probably change.

4)       BB% is very important to pay attention to. Ideally, a player’s BB% at AAA will be at least 9%, otherwise he probably doesn’t have a very good approach or eye at the plate, and MLB pitchers will chew him up and spit him out.

5)       K% is also very important to pay attention to. Anything over 20% is a red flag, as it indicates an inability to consistently put the ball in play, and thus reduces the likelihood of having a decent batting average. Generally, a high K% should go along with a high ISO, otherwise there could be issues. Put simply, the more you strike out, the less opportunity you give yourself to generate offense.

6)       ISO is slugging percentage minus batting average, and is a stat designed to indicate a player’s power. If you hit a single, your ISO is zero. If you hit a home run, it’s 3.000. At both the MLB and AAA levels, .150 is the norm, and a power prospect should be well over the .200 mark.

7)       Gose and Hechavarria are glove-first (and legs first, in Gose’s case) prospects at premium defensive positions (CF and SS, respectively). Anything productive from their bats should be seen in a very positive light.

8)       Gomes is not really a catcher.

9)       D’Arnaud is a catcher, and catchers that can hit at all are extremely valuable. D’Arnaud also won defensive catcher of the year in 2011.