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Toronto, Ontario, Canada
I'm an avid sports and movie fan, and I love statistical analysis of almost anything.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Decrease Equipment, Increase Scoring in the NHL

NHL shooting percentages have decreased dramatically in the last 20 years, and goals per game are way down. From 1990-1993 to 2009-2012 the average shooting percentage (percentage of shots on net that result in goals) has gone from over 11.5% to less than 9%. That means that for every 30 shots on net, instead of a team scoring 3.45 goals per game, they’re scoring 2.7. Average goals per game has gone from around 7 to around 5.5. That’s a big difference (over 25%). However, it’s not like scoring was at a comical rate in 1992. In a 60-minute game, 7 goals would mean, on average, a goal is scored roughly every 8 minutes and 30 seconds. Currently (5.5 GPG), a goal is scoring roughly every 11minutes. So it’s noticeable, but not ridiculous.

I know the NHL reduced the allowable pad sizes, but they’re still too big. Right now, a goalie need only be mostly in position, because he can be less-than-perfectly square to the shooter and less-than-perfectly centered in his net and still cover so much of the goal that scoring is extremely difficult. Basically, the pads are buying them more time, making up for inefficiencies, and asking less of the goalies. Cut the size of the pads noticeably, and trim the chest/body protectors, blocker, and glove dramatically. The jerseys should be form-fitting and allow for flexibility only. With modern stick and skate technology, shots are harder and releases are quicker, and players are faster, but on the flip side defenses are better and goalie techniques are sounder. Another benefit of modern technology is that manufacturers could make pads that are far smaller but equally capable of protecting the goalies. Then the best goalies will truly shine through. The more goals being scored (larger sample), the easier it is to identify who is truly “the best.” When the margin for error is reduced, it becomes a lot easier to distinguish the good from the bad.

Goaltending will always be the most important aspect of the game, especially the playoffs, but it should be based almost entirely on skill, and it should be harder for marginal goalies to compete with a top-flight one.  

Additionally, more scoring is a GOOD thing from the fans’ perspective, because goals are entertaining!    

The league should be trying to recreate the scoring environment of the early 90s (in 1991-1992, 29 guys tallied at least 80 points), where a young star can challenge Gretzky’s records (or at least have a fair shake at it, because I don’t think anyone would break his records). When you control for the scoring environment, players are putting up similar stats today to what they were doing 20 years ago, but that doesn't show up in the record books, or Hall of Fame Voting, or kids collecting hockey cards, or fans who like watching pucks go in nets.

Additionally, the league (sport) has to reduce the violence of the hits. Do whatever it takes. Sidney Crosby, Marian Hossa, and Daniel Sedin can’t be sitting on the sidelines because of a dirty hit. Shoulder and elbow pads should not be hard-as-steel weapons for injuring opponents—they should be padding to avoid injury when falling or being struck with a puck and running into the net or boards. This won’t eliminate hits (this isn’t soccer), but it will help make them less gruesome (officiating and discipline amendments also need to be made). Hitting is good, but devastating head injuries shouldn’t be common. You can’t have players getting knocked out all over the ice, or parents will stop enrolling their kids in minor hockey, and fans will eventually stop tuning in (I think).  

Decrease pad side for goalies and de-weaponize equipment for players, increase scoring. Make gambling on the sport more viable (which will draw more fans) by increasing the margin of victory and reducing the number of overtime games. Point spreads shouldn't always be 0.5! Outcomes should be more (but not completely) predictable. The regular season should mean something come playoff time (don't get me wrong, I love upsets and parity, but 2012 has been a tad ridiculous). 

In the long-term, there's no reason hockey shouldn't grow to be comparable in popularity to the other major North American sports, but if the NHL is serious about getting there, upper management will need to make the game more fun to watch for non-Canadians and more identifiable for people who didn't grow up with the game. More scoring and less gore will go a long way towards that end, and that can be facilitated by changing the equipment rules. 

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