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Toronto, Ontario, Canada
I'm an avid sports and movie fan, and I love statistical analysis of almost anything.

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Ontario-Born Players and the Toronto Maple Leafs

Don Cherry was once my favourite sports/television personality. I thought he was funny and entertaining and, most importantly, accurate, the majority of the time. I haven't felt that way in the past 5 years or so, but he can still entertain.

On Hockey Night in Canada Saturday, Cherry called out Leafs' GM Brian Burke for two things: Burke allegedly going behind Don's back to Don't bosses at the CBC to get him fired, and Burke not having any Ontario-born players on the Leafs. 

The former point is hilarious, and ridiculous, but it was wildly entertaining to see ol' Don fired up like that. If it's true, wow. If it isn't, wow. Either way, those two squaring off is fantastic fodder for fans and writers and broadcasters, etc... 

However, I can't knowledgeably speak to their feud.

The second point that had Grapes going bananas is also very interesting, and something that got me thinking. First, I had to check whether it's true or not--it is. Sort of. Nobody dressed for the Leafs in Saturday's game was born in Ontario. However, 8 members of the Toronto Marlies (the Leafs' farm team) are born in Ontario, including top prospect Nazem Kadri and leading scorer Mike Zigomanis (Zigomanis appears to have little-to-no-shot at being called up to the team, for whatever reason. I understand that he's in his 31st year and thus passed his prime, but he is having a very good season in the minors and is apparently a fine penalty killer, which the Leafs sorely lack). 

It's impossible to ignore the list of American-born players that Burke has: Brown, Connolly, Crabb, Kessel, Liles, Steckel, D'Amigo, Finger (a John Ferguson Jr. signing). That's a disproportionate number. 

The real question that we should be asking is, would the Leafs be better with more Ontario-born players on the team? I'm not even sure how you could quantify that. You could analyze which factors contribute to a Stanley Cup Champ (or even contender if you want to define that term) and include "born in Ontario" as one of the explanatory variables, but I sincerely doubt that it would be statistically significant. Maybe a better approach would be to see whether having more home-grown players results in better on-ice performance. However, many teams have won the Stanley Cup with few or no home grown players (Anaheim, Carolina, Tampa Bay aren't even "hockey cities"), thus I also doubt that. 

Several teams have won without Ontario-born players (or at least Ontario-born stars). The Detroit Red Wings have been one of the best sports franchises, period, in recent memory and their best players are all European. Their only Ontario-born full-time player has been Todd Bertuzzi (although they just traded for Kyle Quincey). 

So as much as I would like to see a local player win a cup with the Leafs, I'm not convinced that a lack of Ontario-born players is holding the team back, nor am I convinced that a player who grew up cheering for the Leafs would suddenly be able to elevate his level of play because he play for them. 

I'd love to ask Brian Burke why he has so many Americans and so few Ontarians. My guess is it's because he feels like he has an advantage with his connections in scouting American-born and bred players. I don't see anything wrong, or prejudiced, about that. I'm also confident that he has an affinity for American players because he is American, but that's only an issue if it clouds his judgement. He gave Tim Connolly a big (albeit short-term) contract that I felt was undeserved, but he also gave big money to Colby Armstrong, which I also thought was a poor decision. 

Burke could take flak for a lot of things, and I'm sure he will sooner rather than later when the Leafs miss the playoffs and off-season signings and dealings being, but I don't believe that the fact that he hasn't made a concerted effort to sign local talent should be one of them. 

***Funny thing I heard at the end of the Leafs-Habs game: Matt Frattin said he's heard that Randy Carlyle loves hard-working guys who hit the gym hard, too. Seriously? Randy Carlyle looks like he's never said no to anything BUT going to the gym...***

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