The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The Good:

David Cooper

Since being called up, he’s hit .324/.359/.568 in 39 plate appearances. A small sample size, yes, but his quiet approach and good eye have led to a 27.3% line drive rate (anything over 20% is good) and a mere 10.3% strikeout rate (league average is around 19%). His .323 BABIP will probably regress a little, as will his 16.7% HR/FB rate, but even with a .294 BABIP (league average) and 11% HR/FB rate (league average) he’d be hitting in the .300/.340/.470 range. Definitely an upgrade over Adam Lind. With a 4.9% swinging strike rate and 92.5% contact rate, he certainly looks like he could be a 2005 Lyle Overbay (an above-average 1B).

The Bad:

Francisco Cordero

He’s only a reliever, so the damage that he can do to the team is limited, but Cordero is looking like a completely wasted signing. I predicted this when the Jays gave him his $4.5million contract, and thanks to diminished velocity and lack of control his ERA is 5.56, slightly worse than his FIP of 5.28 and a full run higher than his xFIP of 4.43. Even if his ERA does improve with a better HR/FB rate (his current 17.4% is probably inflated), a 4.43 ERA is terrible for a reliever making $4.5million per season. I don’t think he’ll get any worse than he has been, but his arsenal doesn’t lend to him being anything more than a middle-innings, low-leverage-situation guy.

The Ugly:

Kyle Drabek

In April, Drabek rode some good fortune and the fact that hitters had little information about him to a 2-2 record and a 2.40 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP. However, his 1.73:1 K/BB ratio and 1.2 HR/9 were ominous. Sure enough, his ERA ballooned to 7.49 in May, and his most recent outing (6.2 innings, 5 runs, 4 walks, 4 strikeouts) wasn’t much better.

Drabek’s issue is simple—he can’t consistently throw strikes or work down in the zone. His 4.65 season ERA is supported by his 4.75 xFIP, and is actually better than his 5.47 FIP. My favourite metric (and the one that has shown to have the most predictive value), SIERA, sees him in the 4.96 ERA range. If his BABIP (currently .261) starts to approach league average (.294) or his career average (.293), his ERA stands to elevate even further. His expected BABIP is approximately .316, although with the Jays’ solid infield and the team using the shift more often, league average is probably the expectation.

Right now, Drabek ranks as the 8th worst qualified starter in the majors by xFIP. He has stamina, he has movement, but he lacks a fundamental component to pitching in the major leagues.

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