Brett Lawrie: The Error of Errors

Often, traditional defensive stats have little predictive value. Sometimes, they’re outright deceptive. They tell you very little of the whole story.

I can’t think of better examples of misleading stats than fielding errors and fielding percentage, and Brett Lawrie is a prime example why.

In order to record an error, a defender must make a play on the ball. Even then, he’s subject to the whims of the scorekeepers, who have their own set of biases and rooting interests (home team vs. away team, for example). Players that don’t get to a lot of ground balls, don’t expose themselves to the opportunity to bobble the baseball, or to make a bad throw. However, speedy, well-placed players are often in position to make a play on the ball, and thus augment their openings to make mistakes in the eyes of the scorers.

Currently, Brett Lawrie leads all American third basemen (3B) in errors recorded with 10, and he has recorded the second most errors at the position, behind Pittsburgh Pirate Pedro Alvarez’ 11. According to fielding percentage, he’s the 15^th best overall 3B and the 7^th best in the American League. That paints a slightly better picture, but it is still extremely illusory.

Brett Lawrie has been the best defensive 3B in major league baseball this season.

Lawrie is a converted second baseman, where apparently he struggled defensively. Since making the move though, he’s shown that he really has a handle on the 3B spot. Here are the two “best” defensive metrics, both of which rank him at the top:

DRS (defensive runs saved): Lawrie so far has compiled 26, compared to second-place Mike Moustakas, who has 5. Over a full season anything over 15 is considered gold-glove caliber. Lawrie’s 26 thus far puts him on pace for over 60! For context, Adrian Beltre’s career total of 144 is the highest recorded by 40, followed by Scott Rolen with 104, and then Brandon Inge with 66. That’s CAREER TOTAL. If Lawrie continues at this pace, he will shatter the single-season record, and go on to be the greatest defensive runs saver in recorded history (Beltre’s season-high was 27 in 2008, and Rolen’s was 30 in 2004).

UZR (ultimate zone rating): Lawrie so far has a rating of 8.4. Moustakas is again in second place, but this time he’s closer, rating a 6.5. Like DRS, anything over 15 for a full season is gold-glove caliber. Lawrie is on pace for over 20! Beltre’s career mark is 125, then Scott Rolen with 107.1, and then Joe Crede with 59.3. This metric is probably the “best” one available to the public (teams might have proprietary models that are even more advanced, but I haven’t read anything) and according to it, Brett Lawrie is similar defensively to Beltre and Rolen at their respective peaks. That’s lofty company.

If you’ve chosen not to click the links to the explanations of what those metrics are, I understand—they’re somewhat time-consuming. But know that the old way of evaluating a player defensively is over. The days when a few national TV sports highlights of Derek Jeter diving into the stands were enough to garner him a Gold Glove have passed.

Lawrie’s errors alone might paint him in a bad light, but digging beneath the surface unearths a story of a defensive whiz.