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Toronto, Ontario, Canada
I'm an avid sports and movie fan, and I love statistical analysis of almost anything.

Sunday, May 27, 2012

The Worst Trade in Blue Jays History

On Friday, January 21, 2011, the Toronto Blue Jays pulled off the best trade in franchise history--they somehow managed to dump Vernon Wells' no-longer-existent defense, disappearing bat, and toxic contract on the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in exchange for barely-useful Juan Rivera and arguably the most underrated (and one of the most valuable) player(s) in major league baseball, Mike Napoli.

The Jays then turned around and, inexplicably, dealt Napoli to the Texas Rangers for right-handed relief pitcher Frank Francisco. I said at the time, "this is a terrible f*ing trade."

Despite being given only 1,216 plate appearances over 4 seasons by certified non-genius manager Mike Scioscia, Napoli managed to tally 8.2 WAR over 3 seasons. That's roughly 4 WAR over a full season, which is about the threshold for an all-star. To get 4 WAR from a catcher is a BIG deal. 

Conversely, Frank Francisco compiled 3.6 WAR (good for a right-handed relief pitcher) over the same 3 seasons. Francisco also happens to be 2 years older than Napoli, and IS A RIGHT-HANDED RELIEF PITCHER.

Following the trade, Francisco went on to an underwhelming 0.5 WAR in 50.7 innings for the Jays in 2011. This season he has a 6.75 ERA and 4.10xFIP with the New York Mets. Suffice it to say, he is not an all-star. 

In 2011, Mike Napoli recorded 5.7 WAR in only 432 plate appearances (seriously, what does it take to be a manager?). The Rangers came this close to winning the world series, and brought Napoli back for a mere $9.4million and only a 1-year commitment, which is roughly what an average free agent worthy of any contract would receive PER YEAR, and almost certainly NOT for a mere 1-year promise. Keep in mind, this is a passable defensive CATCHER who can also play first base and has a career wOBA of .371 (that makes him about 28%, by wRC+, better than the average hitter). A catcher that can slug like that is EXTREMELY valuable. ANY player that can hit like Napoli, regardless of position, is extremely valuable. What the hell is the matter with people? Why would ANYONE trade this guy?

The Jays have a young, average-ish catcher of their own in J.P. Arencibia, and another in the minors who looks like he could be a long-term good player in Travis D'Arnaud. However, trading a catcher with team-control-salary-options remaining, and a monster bat, for a barely-above-average relief pitcher is DUMB. Jays GM Alex Anthopolous seems bright and capable most of the time, but this move is so bad that it makes me question his abilities. 

I don't know everything that goes into being a major league General Manager, and I don't know what goes on behind closed doors when evaluating a player. What I do know, and I refuse to acknowledge this as an opinion because it's so blatantly correct, is that immediately after completing the best trade in franchise history, Alex Anthopolous offset it with the worst trade in franchise history. 

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