The Nazem Kadri Quandry

Nazem Kadri’s name has been blowing around in trade-winds. I myself have suggested trading him. But should they?

Apparently Brian Burke is hesitant to deal him, and other teams covet him. What type of player do they think he can/will become?

I’ve attached a chart (click the image to enlarge) with 9 NHL players whose career paths I feel are optimistically comparable to Kadri’s (a couple are VERY optimistic). As you can see by the names on the list, his upside is extremely appealing.

Each player on the list is the following:

Enjoying, and/or has enjoyed, success at the NHL level (understatement)

Under 6 feet tall

Under 200 pounds

A forward

Offensively-minded by nature

Not overly physical

Drafted by an NHL team, and for the most part highly

Successful in a Canadian Junior league

Successful in the AHL, unless they skipped it entirely

Numerically, any player from the QMJHL needs to have his junior numbers adjusted downward significantly in order to account for the offensive environment of that league and, to a lesser extent, vice versa for any player from the WHL. Steve Sullivan could probably be left off this list because he developed in a different era, where size was far more important. However I left him on to show that you can excel despite being small, even in the so-called dead puck era, and he’s still an active NHL player.

Kadri’s junior numbers stack up with his this list. He entered the OHL at merely 16 years of age, and mostly due to his size the Leafs left him there, after drafting him 7^th overall, until he was 19. A very good sign is that, like other stud prospects, he dominated the league at the age of 19 and averaged nearly 2 points per game. Also, Brian Burke doesn’t like small guys unless they’re supreme talents.

Upon moving to the Marlies, he has continued to keep pace with players on the list who played there at roughly the same age, averaging nearly 1 point per game in the AHL. Claude Giroux was a year younger when he played in the AHL, and is without doubt a better player, but their numbers are comparable. Versteeg didn’t put up quite as attractive stats and is now a solid NHL player. Mike Richards, also a year younger than Kadri when he played, was a point-per-game guy during his playoff run with the Phantoms and is now a very good NHLer. Briere and Sullivan both bounced back and forth before becoming very good NHL players. Patrick Kane is the greatest thing from Buffalo since chicken wings, and is almost certainly a ridiculous parallel for me to draw, but I wanted to add a little hot sauce to the list. Roy followed what seems to be the most similar path (thus far) to Kadri, which bodes well.

Although Kadri’s NHL play has been more style than substance, the flashes of brilliance have been there. Centering a line with another solid offensive player, plus a good two-way player, I could easily see him becoming a reliable 70-game; 20-goals; 30-assists type, and a power play asset. That’s definitely valuable in the NHL, and probably worth about $3million per season in 2012 free agency. If he hones his defensive game, muscles up a little, and shows capacity to hold his own in the face-off circle, he could be a genuine $5million per season player.

Kadri will most likely become a full-time NHL player in the next year or two. With a $1.72million cap hit for 2012/2013, he isn’t free, but he isn’t expensive. His upside is fantastic. Unless the Leafs can get a superstar in return, I see too much potential surplus value in Kadri to warrant trading him.